Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily minimum of 64°F early on September 16, 2026, under light rain and fog with an average temperature of 70°F, seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal low of 57°F. This verified measurement from the primary reference station anchors the overwhelming 99.2% market-implied probability for the 64–65°F bin. Trader consensus aligns with the authoritative data release, reflecting minimal uncertainty once the observation period closed. Only an improbable revision to the official climatological summary or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter resolution, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are rare for this date and location.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chicago on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Chicago on September 16?
64-65°F 100.0%
57°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$598 Vol.
$598 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
57°F or below
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
Yes
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76°F or higher
No
64-65°F 100.0%
57°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
60-61°F <1%
$598 Vol.
$598 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
57°F or below
$200 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$80 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$40 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$60 Vol.
Yes
66-67°F
$40 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$50 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$16 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
No
76°F or higher
$111 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily minimum of 64°F early on September 16, 2026, under light rain and fog with an average temperature of 70°F, seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal low of 57°F. This verified measurement from the primary reference station anchors the overwhelming 99.2% market-implied probability for the 64–65°F bin. Trader consensus aligns with the authoritative data release, reflecting minimal uncertainty once the observation period closed. Only an improbable revision to the official climatological summary or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter resolution, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are rare for this date and location.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$598End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily minimum of 64°F early on September 16, 2026, under light rain and fog with an average temperature of 70°F, seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal low of 57°F. This verified measurement from the primary reference station anchors the overwhelming 99.2% market-implied probability for the 64–65°F bin. Trader consensus aligns with the authoritative data release, reflecting minimal uncertainty once the observation period closed. Only an improbable revision to the official climatological summary or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter resolution, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are rare for this date and location.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$598End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations at Chicago O’Hare International Airport recorded a daily minimum of 64°F early on September 16, 2026, under light rain and fog with an average temperature of 70°F, seven degrees above the 1991–2020 normal low of 57°F. This verified measurement from the primary reference station anchors the overwhelming 99.2% market-implied probability for the 64–65°F bin. Trader consensus aligns with the authoritative data release, reflecting minimal uncertainty once the observation period closed. Only an improbable revision to the official climatological summary or a shift to an alternate station reading could alter resolution, though historical precedent shows such adjustments are rare for this date and location.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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