**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Ankara on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Ankara on September 20?
14°C 100.0%
11°C 1.0%
12°C 1.0%
13°C 1.0%
$12,181 Vol.
$12,181 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
No
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C
Yes
15°C
No
16°C
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C or higher
No
14°C 100.0%
11°C 1.0%
12°C 1.0%
13°C 1.0%
$12,181 Vol.
$12,181 Vol.
Sep 20, 2026
10°C or below
$91 Vol.
No
11°C
$30 Vol.
No
12°C
$187 Vol.
No
13°C
$680 Vol.
No
14°C
$10,145 Vol.
Yes
15°C
$542 Vol.
No
16°C
$91 Vol.
No
17°C
$91 Vol.
No
18°C
$122 Vol.
No
19°C
$101 Vol.
No
20°C or higher
$101 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$12,181End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltac
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$12,181End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ltacResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Numerical weather prediction models from major centers, including ECMWF and GFS, have converged on a minimum temperature of 14°C for Ankara on September 20, 2026, aligning with the market's near-certain 100% implied probability for that outcome.** Recent observations show overnight temperatures stabilizing near this level under mostly cloudy skies with light northeasterly flow and dew points around 12–14°C, consistent with late-September climatology slightly suppressed by cooler northerly advection. Official resolution will rely on the Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) central station reading. While model agreement is strong, realistic challenges include a sharper-than-expected cold pool or delayed cloud cover that could push the low 1–2°C lower, or unexpected mixing that raises it into the 15°C bin. Updated model runs through the overnight period remain the key near-term catalyst for any repricing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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