Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Politics·Iran

Iran Nuke before 2027?

icon for Iran Nuke before 2027?
Politics·Iran

Iran Nuke before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

5% chance
Polymarket

$1,281,991 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$1,281,991 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles and halting visible activities. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since mid-2025, leaving material status and any resumption unverifiable, while a June 2026 memorandum calling for supervised down-blending has stalled. The September 2026 IAEA board referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance underscores these verification gaps and reinforces trader consensus on major technical and political barriers to breakout by end-2026. A rapid, undetected weaponization push remains possible if access stays blocked and internal debates shift policy, though such moves would likely face detection risks and renewed external pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,281,991
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying substantial 60% enriched uranium stockpiles and halting visible activities. IAEA inspectors have been denied access since mid-2025, leaving material status and any resumption unverifiable, while a June 2026 memorandum calling for supervised down-blending has stalled. The September 2026 IAEA board referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance underscores these verification gaps and reinforces trader consensus on major technical and political barriers to breakout by end-2026. A rapid, undetected weaponization push remains possible if access stays blocked and internal debates shift policy, though such moves would likely face detection risks and renewed external pressure.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, Iran's government itself, or credible global news sources officially confirm that Iran possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volume
$1,281,991
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 5:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Related

icon for Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

14%
icon for Iran nuclear test before 2027?

Iran nuclear test before 2027?

4%
icon for Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

13%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran Nuke before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran Nuke before 2027?" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran Nuke before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Iran Nuke before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.