Recent US-Israeli airstrikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering most inoperable and entombing its stockpile of roughly 440 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium under rubble. IAEA inspectors have lacked access to these sites since mid-2025, confirming no active uranium enrichment or large-scale reconstitution, while a September 2026 IAEA board referral to the UN Security Council underscores ongoing compliance disputes without evidence of weaponization decisions. With only months remaining before 2027, traders view the combination of physical setbacks, surveillance constraints, and Iran's current restraint as strong barriers to breakout. Plausible shifts could include accelerated clandestine material recovery or a rapid policy reversal amid stalled diplomacy, though both face significant technical and detection hurdles in the near term.