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icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

icon for Iran leader end of 2026?
World·Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.7%

No Head of State 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 2.9%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,365,305 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei 84.7%

No Head of State 4.4%

Reza Pahlavi 2.9%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad 1.3%

Polymarket

$39,365,305 Vol.

Mojtaba Khamenei

$6,474,223 Vol.

85%

No Head of State

$1,161,271 Vol.

4%

Reza Pahlavi

$679,958 Vol.

3%

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

$1,131,275 Vol.

1%

Alireza Arafi

$2,317,306 Vol.

1%

Hassan Rouhani

$948,293 Vol.

1%

Masoud Pezeshkian

$1,021,854 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Vahidi

$780,494 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf

$921,860 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Khomeini

$1,434,950 Vol.

<1%

Abbas Araghchi

$834,760 Vol.

<1%

Muhammad Mirbaqiri

$441,774 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Larijani

$546,677 Vol.

<1%

Seyed Hossein Mousavian

$3,694,989 Vol.

<1%

Sadegh Mahsouli

$243,571 Vol.

<1%

Hassan Shariatmadari

$3,156,951 Vol.

<1%

Massoud Rajavi

$406,291 Vol.

<1%

Reza Pirzadeh

$151,258 Vol.

<1%

Navid Shomali

$227,643 Vol.

<1%

Ali Motahari

$845,417 Vol.

<1%

Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel

$440,839 Vol.

<1%

Mostafa Pourmohammadi

$3,359,291 Vol.

<1%

Saeed Jalili

$397,419 Vol.

<1%

Mohammad Khatami

$5,214,448 Vol.

<1%

Mohsen Araki

$293,721 Vol.

<1%

Ali Asghar Hejazi

$352,114 Vol.

<1%

Maryam Rajavi

$863,867 Vol.

<1%

Mustafa Hijri

$205,808 Vol.

<1%

Nasir Hosseini

$266,607 Vol.

<1%

Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani

$313,518 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in the market because the Assembly of Experts elected him Supreme Leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike that opened the current conflict. He secured the required two-thirds majority amid rapid consolidation by the clerical establishment and Revolutionary Guard, who viewed him as the candidate best positioned to ensure continuity and hardline control. Despite Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence and reported injuries from the same attack, Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have repeatedly affirmed he remains in effective command, issuing directives through written statements and intermediaries. Traders assign low probability to alternatives such as a leadership council, regime transition, or figures like Reza Pahlavi because no verified development has displaced Mojtaba’s institutional backing or triggered formal succession procedures by September 2026. The market’s resolution hinges on who exercises de facto authority over the armed forces and state institutions on December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$39,365,305
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming lead in the market because the Assembly of Experts elected him Supreme Leader in March 2026 shortly after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in a U.S.-Israeli strike that opened the current conflict. He secured the required two-thirds majority amid rapid consolidation by the clerical establishment and Revolutionary Guard, who viewed him as the candidate best positioned to ensure continuity and hardline control. Despite Mojtaba’s prolonged public absence and reported injuries from the same attack, Iranian officials including President Masoud Pezeshkian have repeatedly affirmed he remains in effective command, issuing directives through written statements and intermediaries. Traders assign low probability to alternatives such as a leadership council, regime transition, or figures like Reza Pahlavi because no verified development has displaced Mojtaba’s institutional backing or triggered formal succession procedures by September 2026. The market’s resolution hinges on who exercises de facto authority over the armed forces and state institutions on December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure.

Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify.

If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
Volume
$39,365,305
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Feb 28, 2026, 7:12 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Iran leader end of 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 32 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 85%, followed by "No Head of State" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 85¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Iran leader end of 2026?" has generated $39.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 28, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Iran leader end of 2026?," browse the 32 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Iran leader end of 2026?" is "Mojtaba Khamenei" at 85%, meaning the market assigns a 85% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "No Head of State" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Iran leader end of 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.