Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its network of seven strategic islands, naval forces, and coastal defenses, despite US military operations, a naval blockade, and strikes on Iranian assets since February 2026. Iranian officials, including IRGC and Foreign Ministry spokesmen, have repeatedly asserted sole administrative authority over shipping routes as of mid-September 2026, conditioning any reopening on sanctions relief and an end to the blockade while rejecting parallel navigation schemes. Traffic has fallen sharply to a small fraction of pre-conflict levels, with Iran reporting drone interceptions and enforcement actions against non-compliant vessels. US statements claim progress in escorting some traffic, but Tehran dismisses these as psychological operations. No verified developments indicate a shift in island sovereignty, though ongoing diplomatic talks with Oman and potential escalation risks remain key variables for any near-term change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$71,135 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
3%
$71,135 Vol.
September 30
$858 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its network of seven strategic islands, naval forces, and coastal defenses, despite US military operations, a naval blockade, and strikes on Iranian assets since February 2026. Iranian officials, including IRGC and Foreign Ministry spokesmen, have repeatedly asserted sole administrative authority over shipping routes as of mid-September 2026, conditioning any reopening on sanctions relief and an end to the blockade while rejecting parallel navigation schemes. Traffic has fallen sharply to a small fraction of pre-conflict levels, with Iran reporting drone interceptions and enforcement actions against non-compliant vessels. US statements claim progress in escorting some traffic, but Tehran dismisses these as psychological operations. No verified developments indicate a shift in island sovereignty, though ongoing diplomatic talks with Oman and potential escalation risks remain key variables for any near-term change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ET
Volume
$71,135End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its network of seven strategic islands, naval forces, and coastal defenses, despite US military operations, a naval blockade, and strikes on Iranian assets since February 2026. Iranian officials, including IRGC and Foreign Ministry spokesmen, have repeatedly asserted sole administrative authority over shipping routes as of mid-September 2026, conditioning any reopening on sanctions relief and an end to the blockade while rejecting parallel navigation schemes. Traffic has fallen sharply to a small fraction of pre-conflict levels, with Iran reporting drone interceptions and enforcement actions against non-compliant vessels. US statements claim progress in escorting some traffic, but Tehran dismisses these as psychological operations. No verified developments indicate a shift in island sovereignty, though ongoing diplomatic talks with Oman and potential escalation risks remain key variables for any near-term change.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hormuz Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hormuz Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hormuz Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,135End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:06 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran maintains firm control over Hormuz Island and the surrounding Strait of Hormuz through its network of seven strategic islands, naval forces, and coastal defenses, despite US military operations, a naval blockade, and strikes on Iranian assets since February 2026. Iranian officials, including IRGC and Foreign Ministry spokesmen, have repeatedly asserted sole administrative authority over shipping routes as of mid-September 2026, conditioning any reopening on sanctions relief and an end to the blockade while rejecting parallel navigation schemes. Traffic has fallen sharply to a small fraction of pre-conflict levels, with Iran reporting drone interceptions and enforcement actions against non-compliant vessels. US statements claim progress in escorting some traffic, but Tehran dismisses these as psychological operations. No verified developments indicate a shift in island sovereignty, though ongoing diplomatic talks with Oman and potential escalation risks remain key variables for any near-term change.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions