Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Mocha port and Perim Island in early September 2026, have intensified control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving a sharp decline in daily transits to as low as 15 crossings on September 12 from prior levels near 30. This follows the July 20 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels and renewed attacks, pushing traffic well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 70 per day and sustaining rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. The developments elevate war-risk insurance premiums and VLCC charter rates above $1 million per day while contributing to Brent crude volatility near $104–110 per barrel. IMF PortWatch and Kpler data confirm reduced but ongoing flows, primarily non-Saudi and shadow-fleet tankers, with market-implied odds reflecting aggregated trader assessments of further escalation risks ahead of potential naval responses or regional de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
4%
December 31
24%
$169 Vol.
September 30
$167 Vol.
4%
December 31
$2 Vol.
24%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Mocha port and Perim Island in early September 2026, have intensified control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving a sharp decline in daily transits to as low as 15 crossings on September 12 from prior levels near 30. This follows the July 20 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels and renewed attacks, pushing traffic well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 70 per day and sustaining rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. The developments elevate war-risk insurance premiums and VLCC charter rates above $1 million per day while contributing to Brent crude volatility near $104–110 per barrel. IMF PortWatch and Kpler data confirm reduced but ongoing flows, primarily non-Saudi and shadow-fleet tankers, with market-implied odds reflecting aggregated trader assessments of further escalation risks ahead of potential naval responses or regional de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$169End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Mocha port and Perim Island in early September 2026, have intensified control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving a sharp decline in daily transits to as low as 15 crossings on September 12 from prior levels near 30. This follows the July 20 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels and renewed attacks, pushing traffic well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 70 per day and sustaining rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. The developments elevate war-risk insurance premiums and VLCC charter rates above $1 million per day while contributing to Brent crude volatility near $104–110 per barrel. IMF PortWatch and Kpler data confirm reduced but ongoing flows, primarily non-Saudi and shadow-fleet tankers, with market-implied odds reflecting aggregated trader assessments of further escalation risks ahead of potential naval responses or regional de-escalation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$169End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 4:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79cResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi territorial gains, including the seizure of Mocha port and Perim Island in early September 2026, have intensified control over the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, driving a sharp decline in daily transits to as low as 15 crossings on September 12 from prior levels near 30. This follows the July 20 maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked vessels and renewed attacks, pushing traffic well below the pre-crisis average of roughly 70 per day and sustaining rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. The developments elevate war-risk insurance premiums and VLCC charter rates above $1 million per day while contributing to Brent crude volatility near $104–110 per barrel. IMF PortWatch and Kpler data confirm reduced but ongoing flows, primarily non-Saudi and shadow-fleet tankers, with market-implied odds reflecting aggregated trader assessments of further escalation risks ahead of potential naval responses or regional de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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