The market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Shenzhen on September 14 reflects real-time consensus from official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models, which indicate temperatures peaked at this exact threshold amid stable subtropical conditions. Current data show daytime maxima influenced by moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited further warming, consistent with regional climatology for mid-September where daily highs typically range 28–32°C. With resolution drawing on verified station measurements rather than projections, only an improbable late-day surge or post-hoc data revision could alter the outcome, underscoring how skin-in-the-game trading aggregates precise environmental signals into tight probability bands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 14?
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$43,742 Vol.
$43,742 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
Yes
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C or higher
No
30°C 100.0%
25°C or below <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
$43,742 Vol.
$43,742 Vol.
Sep 14, 2026
25°C or below
$223 Vol.
No
26°C
$223 Vol.
No
27°C
$1,353 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,134 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,320 Vol.
No
30°C
$16,576 Vol.
Yes
31°C
$8,004 Vol.
No
32°C
$4,719 Vol.
No
33°C
$3,645 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,292 Vol.
No
35°C or higher
$254 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Shenzhen on September 14 reflects real-time consensus from official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models, which indicate temperatures peaked at this exact threshold amid stable subtropical conditions. Current data show daytime maxima influenced by moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited further warming, consistent with regional climatology for mid-September where daily highs typically range 28–32°C. With resolution drawing on verified station measurements rather than projections, only an improbable late-day surge or post-hoc data revision could alter the outcome, underscoring how skin-in-the-game trading aggregates precise environmental signals into tight probability bands.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$43,742End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Shenzhen on September 14 reflects real-time consensus from official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models, which indicate temperatures peaked at this exact threshold amid stable subtropical conditions. Current data show daytime maxima influenced by moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited further warming, consistent with regional climatology for mid-September where daily highs typically range 28–32°C. With resolution drawing on verified station measurements rather than projections, only an improbable late-day surge or post-hoc data revision could alter the outcome, underscoring how skin-in-the-game trading aggregates precise environmental signals into tight probability bands.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$43,742End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's near-certain positioning on a 30°C high for Shenzhen on September 14 reflects real-time consensus from official meteorological observations and short-range forecast models, which indicate temperatures peaked at this exact threshold amid stable subtropical conditions. Current data show daytime maxima influenced by moderate humidity, light winds, and partial cloud cover that limited further warming, consistent with regional climatology for mid-September where daily highs typically range 28–32°C. With resolution drawing on verified station measurements rather than projections, only an improbable late-day surge or post-hoc data revision could alter the outcome, underscoring how skin-in-the-game trading aggregates precise environmental signals into tight probability bands.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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