**Forecast consensus from major models positions 21°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Munich on September 18, driving the 56.5% market-implied probability.** European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated as of September 17, project a daytime high near 20–22°C under mostly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with a mild late-summer air mass over southern Germany, where daytime heating supports values slightly above the 1991–2020 average high of 19.4°C. Lower probabilities for 20°C or 22°C reflect typical model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while outcomes outside 20–23°C remain low-probability given current stability. The market’s tight clustering around the 21°C outcome mirrors the narrow forecast envelope one day before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 18?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 18?
21°C 57%
22°C 25%
20°C 16%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
3%
20°C
16%
21°C
57%
22°C
25%
23°C
3%
24°C
2%
25°C
1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
21°C 57%
22°C 25%
20°C 16%
23°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Sep 18, 2026
17°C or below
$776 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$135 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$273 Vol.
3%
20°C
$1,663 Vol.
16%
21°C
$934 Vol.
57%
22°C
$509 Vol.
25%
23°C
$411 Vol.
3%
24°C
$351 Vol.
2%
25°C
$475 Vol.
1%
26°C
$159 Vol.
<1%
27°C or higher
$159 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from major models positions 21°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Munich on September 18, driving the 56.5% market-implied probability.** European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated as of September 17, project a daytime high near 20–22°C under mostly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with a mild late-summer air mass over southern Germany, where daytime heating supports values slightly above the 1991–2020 average high of 19.4°C. Lower probabilities for 20°C or 22°C reflect typical model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while outcomes outside 20–23°C remain low-probability given current stability. The market’s tight clustering around the 21°C outcome mirrors the narrow forecast envelope one day before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$5,844End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from major models positions 21°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Munich on September 18, driving the 56.5% market-implied probability.** European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated as of September 17, project a daytime high near 20–22°C under mostly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with a mild late-summer air mass over southern Germany, where daytime heating supports values slightly above the 1991–2020 average high of 19.4°C. Lower probabilities for 20°C or 22°C reflect typical model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while outcomes outside 20–23°C remain low-probability given current stability. The market’s tight clustering around the 21°C outcome mirrors the narrow forecast envelope one day before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$5,844End Date
Sep 18, 2026Market Opened
Sep 16, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from major models positions 21°C as the most likely maximum temperature in Munich on September 18, driving the 56.5% market-implied probability.** European and global models, including ECMWF and GFS runs updated as of September 17, project a daytime high near 20–22°C under mostly cloudy skies, light westerly winds, and minimal precipitation risk. This aligns with a mild late-summer air mass over southern Germany, where daytime heating supports values slightly above the 1991–2020 average high of 19.4°C. Lower probabilities for 20°C or 22°C reflect typical model spread and minor uncertainties in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing, while outcomes outside 20–23°C remain low-probability given current stability. The market’s tight clustering around the 21°C outcome mirrors the narrow forecast envelope one day before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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