**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 22°C reflects official meteorological observations confirming that as Istanbul’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026.** Multiple station reports and model runs documented a peak near 21–22°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and northeasterly flow, suppressing typical September afternoon heating. This aligns with a cooling trend evident in recent days, where maximums fell from the mid-20s earlier in the month toward the seasonal norm of roughly 24°C. Resolution hinges on final verified data from Turkish meteorological authorities; revisions are rare once preliminary maxima are posted, though minor station-to-station differences could theoretically shift the exact figure within a narrow range. No credible pathway exists for outcomes outside 21–23°C given the observed diurnal range and atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$16,563 Vol.
$16,563 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
18°C or below <1%
19°C <1%
20°C <1%
$16,563 Vol.
$16,563 Vol.
Sep 16, 2026
18°C or below
$368 Vol.
No
19°C
$597 Vol.
No
20°C
$1,132 Vol.
No
21°C
$4,582 Vol.
No
22°C
$5,021 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$2,292 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,628 Vol.
No
25°C
$297 Vol.
No
26°C
$258 Vol.
No
27°C
$199 Vol.
No
28°C or higher
$189 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 22°C reflects official meteorological observations confirming that as Istanbul’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026.** Multiple station reports and model runs documented a peak near 21–22°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and northeasterly flow, suppressing typical September afternoon heating. This aligns with a cooling trend evident in recent days, where maximums fell from the mid-20s earlier in the month toward the seasonal norm of roughly 24°C. Resolution hinges on final verified data from Turkish meteorological authorities; revisions are rare once preliminary maxima are posted, though minor station-to-station differences could theoretically shift the exact figure within a narrow range. No credible pathway exists for outcomes outside 21–23°C given the observed diurnal range and atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$16,563End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 22°C reflects official meteorological observations confirming that as Istanbul’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026.** Multiple station reports and model runs documented a peak near 21–22°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and northeasterly flow, suppressing typical September afternoon heating. This aligns with a cooling trend evident in recent days, where maximums fell from the mid-20s earlier in the month toward the seasonal norm of roughly 24°C. Resolution hinges on final verified data from Turkish meteorological authorities; revisions are rare once preliminary maxima are posted, though minor station-to-station differences could theoretically shift the exact figure within a narrow range. No credible pathway exists for outcomes outside 21–23°C given the observed diurnal range and atmospheric conditions.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$16,563End Date
Sep 16, 2026Market Opened
Sep 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus at 100% implied probability on 22°C reflects official meteorological observations confirming that as Istanbul’s daily maximum temperature on September 16, 2026.** Multiple station reports and model runs documented a peak near 21–22°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers and northeasterly flow, suppressing typical September afternoon heating. This aligns with a cooling trend evident in recent days, where maximums fell from the mid-20s earlier in the month toward the seasonal norm of roughly 24°C. Resolution hinges on final verified data from Turkish meteorological authorities; revisions are rare once preliminary maxima are posted, though minor station-to-station differences could theoretically shift the exact figure within a narrow range. No credible pathway exists for outcomes outside 21–23°C given the observed diurnal range and atmospheric conditions.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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