Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 100°F under southerly flow advecting warm, moist Gulf air into north Texas, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, carrying a 30–40% probability, introduce the main uncertainty by enhancing cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can trim peak readings by several degrees. Ensemble spreads among short-range models reflect this variability, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 96–99°F bins. Historical September maxima in Dallas average near 93°F, so current anomalous warmth stems from persistent high pressure and above-normal dew points; any shift in convective timing or intensity ahead of the 11th could quickly alter the distribution of outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 11?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 11?
98-99°F 25%
96-97°F 23%
94-95°F 18%
92-93°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
89°F or below
2%
90-91°F
4%
92-93°F
11%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
23%
98-99°F
25%
100-101°F
10%
102-103°F
4%
104-105°F
2%
106-107°F
2%
108°F or higher
<1%
98-99°F 25%
96-97°F 23%
94-95°F 18%
92-93°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 11, 2026
89°F or below
$154 Vol.
2%
90-91°F
$261 Vol.
4%
92-93°F
$972 Vol.
11%
94-95°F
$720 Vol.
18%
96-97°F
$1,010 Vol.
23%
98-99°F
$3,776 Vol.
25%
100-101°F
$770 Vol.
10%
102-103°F
$249 Vol.
4%
104-105°F
$238 Vol.
2%
106-107°F
$62 Vol.
2%
108°F or higher
$209 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 100°F under southerly flow advecting warm, moist Gulf air into north Texas, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, carrying a 30–40% probability, introduce the main uncertainty by enhancing cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can trim peak readings by several degrees. Ensemble spreads among short-range models reflect this variability, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 96–99°F bins. Historical September maxima in Dallas average near 93°F, so current anomalous warmth stems from persistent high pressure and above-normal dew points; any shift in convective timing or intensity ahead of the 11th could quickly alter the distribution of outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 9, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$8,421End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 100°F under southerly flow advecting warm, moist Gulf air into north Texas, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, carrying a 30–40% probability, introduce the main uncertainty by enhancing cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can trim peak readings by several degrees. Ensemble spreads among short-range models reflect this variability, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 96–99°F bins. Historical September maxima in Dallas average near 93°F, so current anomalous warmth stems from persistent high pressure and above-normal dew points; any shift in convective timing or intensity ahead of the 11th could quickly alter the distribution of outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,421End Date
Sep 11, 2026Market Opened
Sep 9, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance points to a Friday high near 100°F under southerly flow advecting warm, moist Gulf air into north Texas, with heat indices exceeding 105°F. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms, carrying a 30–40% probability, introduce the main uncertainty by enhancing cloud cover and evaporative cooling that can trim peak readings by several degrees. Ensemble spreads among short-range models reflect this variability, keeping market-implied odds tightly clustered between the 96–99°F bins. Historical September maxima in Dallas average near 93°F, so current anomalous warmth stems from persistent high pressure and above-normal dew points; any shift in convective timing or intensity ahead of the 11th could quickly alter the distribution of outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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