Recent observational data and model consensus indicate Toronto's overnight minimum on September 21 fell to 9–10°C amid partly cloudy skies, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and surface high pressure promoting radiational cooling. Hourly readings showed temperatures bottoming near 9°C in the early morning before rebounding, consistent with Environment Canada guidance and GFS outputs that placed the daily low below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.7°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 10°C (75%) and 9°C (48%) because these align with verified station data near Pearson Airport and downtown sites, while lower outcomes like 8°C or below carry reduced odds absent stronger cold advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and post-event verification reports are expected to refine resolution shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Toronto on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Toronto on September 21?
10°C 100%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$325 Vol.
$325 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
4°C or below
No
5°C
No
6°C
No
7°C
No
8°C
No
9°C
No
10°C
Yes
11°C
No
12°C
No
13°C
No
14°C or higher
No
10°C 100%
4°C or below <1%
5°C <1%
6°C <1%
$325 Vol.
$325 Vol.
Sep 21, 2026
4°C or below
$15 Vol.
No
5°C
$15 Vol.
No
6°C
$15 Vol.
No
7°C
$15 Vol.
No
8°C
$30 Vol.
No
9°C
$30 Vol.
No
10°C
$50 Vol.
Yes
11°C
$60 Vol.
No
12°C
$60 Vol.
No
13°C
$15 Vol.
No
14°C or higher
$20 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and model consensus indicate Toronto's overnight minimum on September 21 fell to 9–10°C amid partly cloudy skies, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and surface high pressure promoting radiational cooling. Hourly readings showed temperatures bottoming near 9°C in the early morning before rebounding, consistent with Environment Canada guidance and GFS outputs that placed the daily low below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.7°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 10°C (75%) and 9°C (48%) because these align with verified station data near Pearson Airport and downtown sites, while lower outcomes like 8°C or below carry reduced odds absent stronger cold advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and post-event verification reports are expected to refine resolution shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$325End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent observational data and model consensus indicate Toronto's overnight minimum on September 21 fell to 9–10°C amid partly cloudy skies, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and surface high pressure promoting radiational cooling. Hourly readings showed temperatures bottoming near 9°C in the early morning before rebounding, consistent with Environment Canada guidance and GFS outputs that placed the daily low below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.7°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 10°C (75%) and 9°C (48%) because these align with verified station data near Pearson Airport and downtown sites, while lower outcomes like 8°C or below carry reduced odds absent stronger cold advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and post-event verification reports are expected to refine resolution shortly.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Toronto Pearson Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$325End Date
Sep 21, 2026Market Opened
Sep 19, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=cyyzResolver
0x69c47de9d...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent observational data and model consensus indicate Toronto's overnight minimum on September 21 fell to 9–10°C amid partly cloudy skies, northeasterly winds of 10–15 mph, and surface high pressure promoting radiational cooling. Hourly readings showed temperatures bottoming near 9°C in the early morning before rebounding, consistent with Environment Canada guidance and GFS outputs that placed the daily low below the 1991–2020 climatological average of 12.7°C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 10°C (75%) and 9°C (48%) because these align with verified station data near Pearson Airport and downtown sites, while lower outcomes like 8°C or below carry reduced odds absent stronger cold advection or clearer skies. Updated model runs and post-event verification reports are expected to refine resolution shortly.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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