Traders have converged on 22°C as the certain outcome for Chengdu’s daily maximum temperature on September 12, 2026, driven by real-time surface observations and official station data that show the peak reached precisely that level under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow. Multiple forecast models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, consistently indicated a narrow range around 20–24°C amid high humidity and minimal solar heating, aligning with the market-implied odds. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the low uncertainty once afternoon readings confirmed no further rise. Only an unexpected late-day surge from clearing skies or station-specific microclimate effects could have altered the result, but current conditions rendered such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 12?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 12?
22°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
23°C <1%
$53,132 Vol.
$53,132 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
23°C <1%
$53,132 Vol.
$53,132 Vol.
Sep 12, 2026
20°C or below
$1,544 Vol.
No
21°C
$3,277 Vol.
No
22°C
$9,854 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$14,957 Vol.
No
24°C
$7,163 Vol.
No
25°C
$7,860 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,222 Vol.
No
27°C
$883 Vol.
No
28°C
$689 Vol.
No
29°C
$838 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$845 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 22°C as the certain outcome for Chengdu’s daily maximum temperature on September 12, 2026, driven by real-time surface observations and official station data that show the peak reached precisely that level under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow. Multiple forecast models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, consistently indicated a narrow range around 20–24°C amid high humidity and minimal solar heating, aligning with the market-implied odds. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the low uncertainty once afternoon readings confirmed no further rise. Only an unexpected late-day surge from clearing skies or station-specific microclimate effects could have altered the result, but current conditions rendered such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$53,132End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 22°C as the certain outcome for Chengdu’s daily maximum temperature on September 12, 2026, driven by real-time surface observations and official station data that show the peak reached precisely that level under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow. Multiple forecast models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, consistently indicated a narrow range around 20–24°C amid high humidity and minimal solar heating, aligning with the market-implied odds. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the low uncertainty once afternoon readings confirmed no further rise. Only an unexpected late-day surge from clearing skies or station-specific microclimate effects could have altered the result, but current conditions rendered such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53,132End Date
Sep 12, 2026Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 22°C as the certain outcome for Chengdu’s daily maximum temperature on September 12, 2026, driven by real-time surface observations and official station data that show the peak reached precisely that level under persistent cloud cover and light northerly flow. Multiple forecast models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles, consistently indicated a narrow range around 20–24°C amid high humidity and minimal solar heating, aligning with the market-implied odds. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects the low uncertainty once afternoon readings confirmed no further rise. Only an unexpected late-day surge from clearing skies or station-specific microclimate effects could have altered the result, but current conditions rendered such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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