**Trader consensus has converged on 24°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on September 19 because official Japan Meteorological Agency observations recorded a daily maximum of exactly 24.0°C at 10:42 local time.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow maintained stable conditions that prevented further warming, aligning with model guidance showing limited diurnal rise under overcast skies. This outcome sits near the lower end of September climatology for Tokyo, where typical maxima average around 27–28°C but drop under rainy, stable patterns. Realistic challenges would require revised station data or measurement adjustments exceeding the recorded peak, though current verified observations leave little room for deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 19?
24°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$53,592 Vol.
$53,592 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
Yes
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
24°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$53,592 Vol.
$53,592 Vol.
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
$2,494 Vol.
No
21°C
$465 Vol.
No
22°C
$1,866 Vol.
No
23°C
$8,031 Vol.
No
24°C
$19,098 Vol.
Yes
25°C
$6,073 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,698 Vol.
No
27°C
$2,390 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,975 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,359 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$2,143 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 24°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on September 19 because official Japan Meteorological Agency observations recorded a daily maximum of exactly 24.0°C at 10:42 local time.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow maintained stable conditions that prevented further warming, aligning with model guidance showing limited diurnal rise under overcast skies. This outcome sits near the lower end of September climatology for Tokyo, where typical maxima average around 27–28°C but drop under rainy, stable patterns. Realistic challenges would require revised station data or measurement adjustments exceeding the recorded peak, though current verified observations leave little room for deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$53,592End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has converged on 24°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on September 19 because official Japan Meteorological Agency observations recorded a daily maximum of exactly 24.0°C at 10:42 local time.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow maintained stable conditions that prevented further warming, aligning with model guidance showing limited diurnal rise under overcast skies. This outcome sits near the lower end of September climatology for Tokyo, where typical maxima average around 27–28°C but drop under rainy, stable patterns. Realistic challenges would require revised station data or measurement adjustments exceeding the recorded peak, though current verified observations leave little room for deviation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$53,592End Date
Sep 19, 2026Market Opened
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has converged on 24°C as the highest temperature in Tokyo on September 19 because official Japan Meteorological Agency observations recorded a daily maximum of exactly 24.0°C at 10:42 local time.** Persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and northeasterly flow maintained stable conditions that prevented further warming, aligning with model guidance showing limited diurnal rise under overcast skies. This outcome sits near the lower end of September climatology for Tokyo, where typical maxima average around 27–28°C but drop under rainy, stable patterns. Realistic challenges would require revised station data or measurement adjustments exceeding the recorded peak, though current verified observations leave little room for deviation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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