Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz have included reported strikes on or near Hengam and adjacent islands such as Qeshm and Larak since early 2026, alongside Iranian assertions of sovereignty and reinforcement of naval and missile positions across its seven strategic Gulf islands. A September 13, 2026, attack on an Iranian commercial vessel off Hengam killed one crew member and wounded others, highlighting persistent maritime risks without altering administrative or military control. Tehran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over the island, using it to monitor shipping lanes, while no verified amphibious operations, occupations, or transfers to another state or authority have occurred. Trader assessments reflect these barriers, with scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further strikes as variables that could influence escalation risks before later resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Hengam Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$208,473 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
1%
$208,473 Vol.
September 30
$2,633 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz have included reported strikes on or near Hengam and adjacent islands such as Qeshm and Larak since early 2026, alongside Iranian assertions of sovereignty and reinforcement of naval and missile positions across its seven strategic Gulf islands. A September 13, 2026, attack on an Iranian commercial vessel off Hengam killed one crew member and wounded others, highlighting persistent maritime risks without altering administrative or military control. Tehran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over the island, using it to monitor shipping lanes, while no verified amphibious operations, occupations, or transfers to another state or authority have occurred. Trader assessments reflect these barriers, with scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further strikes as variables that could influence escalation risks before later resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$208,473End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz have included reported strikes on or near Hengam and adjacent islands such as Qeshm and Larak since early 2026, alongside Iranian assertions of sovereignty and reinforcement of naval and missile positions across its seven strategic Gulf islands. A September 13, 2026, attack on an Iranian commercial vessel off Hengam killed one crew member and wounded others, highlighting persistent maritime risks without altering administrative or military control. Tehran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over the island, using it to monitor shipping lanes, while no verified amphibious operations, occupations, or transfers to another state or authority have occurred. Trader assessments reflect these barriers, with scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further strikes as variables that could influence escalation risks before later resolution dates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hengam Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Hengam Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Hengam Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$208,473End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military exchanges in the Strait of Hormuz have included reported strikes on or near Hengam and adjacent islands such as Qeshm and Larak since early 2026, alongside Iranian assertions of sovereignty and reinforcement of naval and missile positions across its seven strategic Gulf islands. A September 13, 2026, attack on an Iranian commercial vessel off Hengam killed one crew member and wounded others, highlighting persistent maritime risks without altering administrative or military control. Tehran continues to exercise primary governmental and military authority over the island, using it to monitor shipping lanes, while no verified amphibious operations, occupations, or transfers to another state or authority have occurred. Trader assessments reflect these barriers, with scheduled diplomatic talks and potential further strikes as variables that could influence escalation risks before later resolution dates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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