Tensions between Iran and several Western and Gulf states continue to drive diplomatic expulsions, with reciprocal measures common under the Vienna Convention framework. In August 2026, France expelled two Iranian diplomats after Iran declared two French embassy staff in Tehran persona non grata over alleged interference in domestic affairs and violations of diplomatic immunity. Kuwait followed a similar pattern in June after Iranian missile and drone strikes on its territory, while Argentina and the United States had taken earlier actions in 2026 citing security concerns and political statements. These episodes reflect broader frictions over regional conflicts, nuclear issues, and accusations of espionage or influence operations. No major new expulsions have occurred since mid-August, though ongoing Iran-related security alerts and bilateral disputes could prompt further moves by governments monitoring Iranian diplomatic activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
$31,110 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
13%
October 31
22%
$31,110 Vol.
September 30
$1,163 Vol.
13%
October 31
$1,630 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tensions between Iran and several Western and Gulf states continue to drive diplomatic expulsions, with reciprocal measures common under the Vienna Convention framework. In August 2026, France expelled two Iranian diplomats after Iran declared two French embassy staff in Tehran persona non grata over alleged interference in domestic affairs and violations of diplomatic immunity. Kuwait followed a similar pattern in June after Iranian missile and drone strikes on its territory, while Argentina and the United States had taken earlier actions in 2026 citing security concerns and political statements. These episodes reflect broader frictions over regional conflicts, nuclear issues, and accusations of espionage or influence operations. No major new expulsions have occurred since mid-August, though ongoing Iran-related security alerts and bilateral disputes could prompt further moves by governments monitoring Iranian diplomatic activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$31,110End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tensions between Iran and several Western and Gulf states continue to drive diplomatic expulsions, with reciprocal measures common under the Vienna Convention framework. In August 2026, France expelled two Iranian diplomats after Iran declared two French embassy staff in Tehran persona non grata over alleged interference in domestic affairs and violations of diplomatic immunity. Kuwait followed a similar pattern in June after Iranian missile and drone strikes on its territory, while Argentina and the United States had taken earlier actions in 2026 citing security concerns and political statements. These episodes reflect broader frictions over regional conflicts, nuclear issues, and accusations of espionage or influence operations. No major new expulsions have occurred since mid-August, though ongoing Iran-related security alerts and bilateral disputes could prompt further moves by governments monitoring Iranian diplomatic activity.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$31,110End Date
Nov 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between Iran and several Western and Gulf states continue to drive diplomatic expulsions, with reciprocal measures common under the Vienna Convention framework. In August 2026, France expelled two Iranian diplomats after Iran declared two French embassy staff in Tehran persona non grata over alleged interference in domestic affairs and violations of diplomatic immunity. Kuwait followed a similar pattern in June after Iranian missile and drone strikes on its territory, while Argentina and the United States had taken earlier actions in 2026 citing security concerns and political statements. These episodes reflect broader frictions over regional conflicts, nuclear issues, and accusations of espionage or influence operations. No major new expulsions have occurred since mid-August, though ongoing Iran-related security alerts and bilateral disputes could prompt further moves by governments monitoring Iranian diplomatic activity.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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