**The near-certain "No" outcome at 98.8% reflects the fundamental geological limit that no known fault is long enough to produce a magnitude 10 or larger earthquake.** USGS assessments note that magnitude scales with rupture length, and a 10.0 event would require a fault spanning thousands of miles—essentially encircling much of the planet—which does not exist. The largest instrumentally recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, followed by others at 9.0–9.2; global catalogs show M9+ quakes occur roughly once or twice per century at most. With only months remaining until 2027, the short resolution window reinforces trader consensus. While seismic monitoring by USGS and similar agencies could theoretically record an anomalous event or revised magnitude estimate, physical constraints on fault systems make such shifts highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
$815,904 Vol.
$815,904 Vol.
$815,904 Vol.
$815,904 Vol.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...**The near-certain "No" outcome at 98.8% reflects the fundamental geological limit that no known fault is long enough to produce a magnitude 10 or larger earthquake.** USGS assessments note that magnitude scales with rupture length, and a 10.0 event would require a fault spanning thousands of miles—essentially encircling much of the planet—which does not exist. The largest instrumentally recorded quake remains the 9.5 Valdivia event in Chile in 1960, followed by others at 9.0–9.2; global catalogs show M9+ quakes occur roughly once or twice per century at most. With only months remaining until 2027, the short resolution window reinforces trader consensus. While seismic monitoring by USGS and similar agencies could theoretically record an anomalous event or revised magnitude estimate, physical constraints on fault systems make such shifts highly improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions