Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?
¿Invadirá Rusia otro país en 2026?
Sí
7% probabilidad
$458,890 Vol.
$458,890 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
7% probabilidad
$458,890 Vol.
$458,890 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
Volumen
$458,890Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$458,890Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine, marked by slow tactical gains in Donetsk Oblast and high casualties through September 2026, continues to absorb the bulk of its available forces and resources. Recent US-Russia diplomatic contacts, including September meetings involving US envoys and President Putin, center on negotiations to end that conflict rather than new operations elsewhere. Assessments from Western officials note the possibility of limited provocations against NATO’s eastern flank, yet a full-scale conventional invasion of another country remains viewed as highly improbable given Russia’s stretched logistics, recruitment shortfalls, and domestic political focus ahead of State Duma elections. Trader pricing at 93.5% for no new invasion aligns with this constrained posture and the short timeline remaining in 2026.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes