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icon for ¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?

¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?

icon for ¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?

¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?

10 o más estados 57%

3-4 estados 37%

5-6 estados 37%

7-9 estados 37%

Polymarket
NUEVO

10 o más estados 57%

3-4 estados 37%

5-6 estados 37%

7-9 estados 37%

Polymarket
NUEVO

0 estados

$51 Vol.

1%

1-2 estados

$0 Vol.

34%

3-4 estados

$0 Vol.

37%

5-6 estados

$0 Vol.

37%

7-9 estados

$0 Vol.

37%

10 o más estados

$0 Vol.

57%

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Flash drought driven by persistent hot, dry weather across the southern Great Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley has rapidly intensified conditions, expanding exceptional (D4) drought areas in multiple states.** The U.S. Drought Monitor, produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center with NOAA and USDA input, classifies D4 based on extreme precipitation deficits, depleted soil moisture, low streamflows, and agricultural impacts relative to historical baselines. Recent weekly summaries note degradation from Texas northeastward through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and adjacent areas, with additional D4 pockets in parts of the northern Plains, Idaho, Colorado, and isolated Southeast locations such as North Carolina. This has elevated the number of affected states, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 10 or more states (57%). Warmer-than-normal temperatures have amplified evapotranspiration, while the lack of relief precipitation sustains the trend; the next USDM update will incorporate any late-week changes before final resolution.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volumen
$51
Fecha de finalización
10 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.**Flash drought driven by persistent hot, dry weather across the southern Great Plains and into the Mississippi River Valley has rapidly intensified conditions, expanding exceptional (D4) drought areas in multiple states.** The U.S. Drought Monitor, produced by the National Drought Mitigation Center with NOAA and USDA input, classifies D4 based on extreme precipitation deficits, depleted soil moisture, low streamflows, and agricultural impacts relative to historical baselines. Recent weekly summaries note degradation from Texas northeastward through Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, Arkansas, and adjacent areas, with additional D4 pockets in parts of the northern Plains, Idaho, Colorado, and isolated Southeast locations such as North Carolina. This has elevated the number of affected states, aligning with market-implied odds favoring 10 or more states (57%). Warmer-than-normal temperatures have amplified evapotranspiration, while the lack of relief precipitation sustains the trend; the next USDM update will incorporate any late-week changes before final resolution.

This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026.

Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes".

The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered.

Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday.

Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final.

The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
This market will resolve to the bracket containing the number of coterminous US states (out of 48) with D4 percent area of 0.05% or more in the US Drought Monitor release for the week of September 8, 2026. Brackets: 0 / 1-2 / 3-4 / 5-6 / 7-9 / 10+. Exactly one bracket resolves "Yes". The count ranges over all 48 coterminous states — the 48 states excluding Alaska and Hawaii. The District of Columbia and U.S. territories are not considered. Each USDM release covers the seven-day period ending Tuesday at 8:00 AM ET and is published the following Thursday. Resolution is based on the first published US Drought Monitor release for the listed week. Subsequent revisions will not be considered; the first published release is final. The resolution source for this market is the US Drought Monitor at droughtmonitor.unl.edu.
Volumen
$51
Fecha de finalización
10 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 9:00 AM ET

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 6 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "10 o más estados" con 57%, seguido de "3-4 estados" con 37%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 57¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Sep 3, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?", explora los 6 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?" es "10 o más estados" con 57%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 57% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "3-4 estados" con 37%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos estados estarán en D4 (sequía excepcional) — semana del 8 de septiembre de 2026?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.