Reinaldo Azambuja (PL) maintains a clear lead in recent polls for one Senate seat in Mato Grosso do Sul, leaving the second position contested among Capitão Contar (PL), Soraya Thronicke (PSB), and Vander Loubet (PT). Nelsinho Trad’s withdrawal to serve as Azambuja’s alternate has consolidated support within the PL ticket, bolstering Contar’s positioning in combined-vote scenarios. Polling averages from August and early September show Contar frequently ahead or tied for second, while Vander has gained ground in some surveys and Soraya holds steady backing from her base. With voters selecting two candidates and roughly one month until the October election, turnout patterns, last-minute alliances, and final debate performances remain key variables that could shift the narrow margins reflected in trader pricing.