Chen Yu-jen, the Kuomintang nominee and sitting legislator, holds a commanding position in the November 28 Kinmen County magistrate race due to unified party backing, deep local roots, and consistent polling leads. A KMT-commissioned survey from early September showed her at 45.4% support against independent Li Wen-liang at 10.7% and five other independents totaling under 6%, with 37.6% undecided. Traders price her victory probability near 95% amid Kinmen’s longstanding preference for KMT candidates, her reported 56% satisfaction rating as legislator, and the absence of a Democratic Progressive Party contender. Key drivers include her emphasis on long-term care, smart-city development, and cross-strait ties. Late shifts among undecided voters, coordinated opposition messaging on transparency or internationalization, or unforeseen local controversies remain the main realistic paths to narrowing her margin before election day.