The by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped trader views on Green vote share through a high-profile contest pitting party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali. Local 2026 Camden results and by-election projections show the Greens closing sharply on Labour from their 10.4% baseline in 2024, fueled by intensive doorstep campaigning and gains in the constituency’s progressive wards. The race remains tight because Labour retains strong local organization and a candidate with executive experience, while opposition fragmentation and turnout patterns could cap or boost the Green total. Recent national polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions support the current clustering around the 30-40% bands as the most probable outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoElecciones parciales de Holborn y St Pancras: ¿Compartir el voto verde?
Elecciones parciales de Holborn y St Pancras: ¿Compartir el voto verde?
35-40% 34%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 22%
<20% 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 oct 2026
<20%
10%
20-25%
6%
25-30%
22%
30-35%
27%
35-40%
34%
40%+
8%
35-40% 34%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 22%
<20% 10%
NUEVO
NUEVO
8 oct 2026
<20%
$534 Vol.
10%
20-25%
$395 Vol.
6%
25-30%
$554 Vol.
22%
30-35%
$438 Vol.
27%
35-40%
$759 Vol.
34%
40%+
$314 Vol.
8%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped trader views on Green vote share through a high-profile contest pitting party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali. Local 2026 Camden results and by-election projections show the Greens closing sharply on Labour from their 10.4% baseline in 2024, fueled by intensive doorstep campaigning and gains in the constituency’s progressive wards. The race remains tight because Labour retains strong local organization and a candidate with executive experience, while opposition fragmentation and turnout patterns could cap or boost the Green total. Recent national polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions support the current clustering around the 30-40% bands as the most probable outcomes.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
Volumen
$2,994Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped trader views on Green vote share through a high-profile contest pitting party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali. Local 2026 Camden results and by-election projections show the Greens closing sharply on Labour from their 10.4% baseline in 2024, fueled by intensive doorstep campaigning and gains in the constituency’s progressive wards. The race remains tight because Labour retains strong local organization and a candidate with executive experience, while opposition fragmentation and turnout patterns could cap or boost the Green total. Recent national polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions support the current clustering around the 30-40% bands as the most probable outcomes.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
Volumen
$2,994Fecha de finalización
8 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The by-election on 8 October 2026, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, has shaped trader views on Green vote share through a high-profile contest pitting party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali. Local 2026 Camden results and by-election projections show the Greens closing sharply on Labour from their 10.4% baseline in 2024, fueled by intensive doorstep campaigning and gains in the constituency’s progressive wards. The race remains tight because Labour retains strong local organization and a candidate with executive experience, while opposition fragmentation and turnout patterns could cap or boost the Green total. Recent national polling trends and the absence of major late disruptions support the current clustering around the 30-40% bands as the most probable outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Obtendrá el candidato del Partido Laborista entre el 40 y el 45% de los votos en la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras?
39%
Sí
¿Ganará el candidato laborista la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras por un margen del 15% o más?
39%
Sí
¿Ganará Sagal Abdi-Wali la elección parcial de Holborn y St Pancras?
84%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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