Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Futura places Augusto Cury (Avante) between 3.5% and 7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, aligning with trader consensus around the 2–6% bands. His late-August surge to double digits in some surveys stemmed from social media growth and television exposure as a third-way alternative to President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, yet support has softened amid competition from other non-establishment candidates and questions over digital reach. Cury’s platform emphasizes reducing polarization, anti-corruption measures, and institutional reforms, including STF changes, while drawing from voters dissatisfied with the two leading families. With the campaign nearly concluded and major contenders holding steady leads, further separation would require rapid shifts in undecided or tactical voting that have not materialized in the most recent surveys.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado2-4% 40%
4-6% 31%
6%+ 19%
1-2% 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<1%
4%
1-2%
6%
2-4%
40%
4-6%
31%
6%+
19%
2-4% 40%
4-6% 31%
6%+ 19%
1-2% 6%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<1%
$106 Vol.
4%
1-2%
$602 Vol.
6%
2-4%
$778 Vol.
40%
4-6%
$742 Vol.
31%
6%+
$7,252 Vol.
19%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Futura places Augusto Cury (Avante) between 3.5% and 7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, aligning with trader consensus around the 2–6% bands. His late-August surge to double digits in some surveys stemmed from social media growth and television exposure as a third-way alternative to President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, yet support has softened amid competition from other non-establishment candidates and questions over digital reach. Cury’s platform emphasizes reducing polarization, anti-corruption measures, and institutional reforms, including STF changes, while drawing from voters dissatisfied with the two leading families. With the campaign nearly concluded and major contenders holding steady leads, further separation would require rapid shifts in undecided or tactical voting that have not materialized in the most recent surveys.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Volumen
$9,479Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Futura places Augusto Cury (Avante) between 3.5% and 7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, aligning with trader consensus around the 2–6% bands. His late-August surge to double digits in some surveys stemmed from social media growth and television exposure as a third-way alternative to President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, yet support has softened amid competition from other non-establishment candidates and questions over digital reach. Cury’s platform emphasizes reducing polarization, anti-corruption measures, and institutional reforms, including STF changes, while drawing from voters dissatisfied with the two leading families. With the campaign nearly concluded and major contenders holding steady leads, further separation would require rapid shifts in undecided or tactical voting that have not materialized in the most recent surveys.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$9,479Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, AtlasIntel, and Futura places Augusto Cury (Avante) between 3.5% and 7% in first-round scenarios for Brazil’s October 4 presidential election, aligning with trader consensus around the 2–6% bands. His late-August surge to double digits in some surveys stemmed from social media growth and television exposure as a third-way alternative to President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, yet support has softened amid competition from other non-establishment candidates and questions over digital reach. Cury’s platform emphasizes reducing polarization, anti-corruption measures, and institutional reforms, including STF changes, while drawing from voters dissatisfied with the two leading families. With the campaign nearly concluded and major contenders holding steady leads, further separation would require rapid shifts in undecided or tactical voting that have not materialized in the most recent surveys.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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