Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover pressures on long-serving members, ideological contests between establishment figures and progressive or democratic socialist-backed candidates, and Texas redistricting that forced some Democrats into the same districts. Multiple incumbents including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and others in Texas have already lost renomination, contributing to a total of roughly seven Democratic defeats reported through early September. Remaining September primaries and runoffs in states such as Massachusetts, Hawaii, and California feature additional vulnerable incumbents facing younger challengers. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with the pace of these developments and the number of contested races still to resolve before the end of the primary calendar.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado10-12 80.4%
13-15 18.9%
7-9 1.2%
$51,220 Vol.
$51,220 Vol.
7-9
1%
10-12
80%
13-15
19%
10-12 80.4%
13-15 18.9%
7-9 1.2%
$51,220 Vol.
$51,220 Vol.
7-9
$14,581 Vol.
1%
10-12
$11,134 Vol.
80%
13-15
$5,052 Vol.
19%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover pressures on long-serving members, ideological contests between establishment figures and progressive or democratic socialist-backed candidates, and Texas redistricting that forced some Democrats into the same districts. Multiple incumbents including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and others in Texas have already lost renomination, contributing to a total of roughly seven Democratic defeats reported through early September. Remaining September primaries and runoffs in states such as Massachusetts, Hawaii, and California feature additional vulnerable incumbents facing younger challengers. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with the pace of these developments and the number of contested races still to resolve before the end of the primary calendar.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Mercado abierto: Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ET
Volumen
$51,220Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover pressures on long-serving members, ideological contests between establishment figures and progressive or democratic socialist-backed candidates, and Texas redistricting that forced some Democrats into the same districts. Multiple incumbents including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and others in Texas have already lost renomination, contributing to a total of roughly seven Democratic defeats reported through early September. Remaining September primaries and runoffs in states such as Massachusetts, Hawaii, and California feature additional vulnerable incumbents facing younger challengers. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with the pace of these developments and the number of contested races still to resolve before the end of the primary calendar.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026, with congressional primaries running from March through September.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
This market will resolve according to the number of Democratic House incumbents who do not win their nominating election to move on to the general election as a result of the 2026 midterm primary elections.
An incumbent will be considered not to have won their election if they are not declared the winner of the election they sought, including if they withdraw, suspend, or otherwise leave the race at any point after officially registering as a candidate, regardless of the reason. Incumbents who do not officially register as candidates for reelection will not be considered.
This market will resolve based on the results of all House nominating elections, including party primaries, top-two or jungle primaries, and primaries for special elections, that are scheduled to occur between March 1 and September 30, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election or a subsequent qualifying round in a non-partisan primary system could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that contest is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time of their nominating election.
Members of the House of Representatives who are "delegates” or “resident commissioners” not chosen by the people of a state are not included for purposes of resolving this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all relevant nominating elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on official state certification of the nominating election results.
Volumen
$51,220Mercado abierto
Jan 14, 2026, 2:55 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic House incumbents have faced an unusually high number of primary challenges in 2026, driven by generational turnover pressures on long-serving members, ideological contests between establishment figures and progressive or democratic socialist-backed candidates, and Texas redistricting that forced some Democrats into the same districts. Multiple incumbents including Dan Goldman and Adriano Espaillat in New York, Diana DeGette in Colorado, Shri Thanedar in Michigan, John Larson in Connecticut, and others in Texas have already lost renomination, contributing to a total of roughly seven Democratic defeats reported through early September. Remaining September primaries and runoffs in states such as Massachusetts, Hawaii, and California feature additional vulnerable incumbents facing younger challengers. Trader consensus around 10-12 total losses aligns with the pace of these developments and the number of contested races still to resolve before the end of the primary calendar.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿No ganarán los titulares republicanos de la Cámara entre cuatro y seis elecciones de nominación en el ciclo de 2026?
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes