Recent stronger-than-expected German GDP prints, including a revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter gain in Q2 2026 alongside 0.9% year-over-year growth, have lifted trader consensus toward 1.0-1.2% year-over-year expansion for Q3. Export momentum and expansionary fiscal policy, including infrastructure and defense outlays, underpin the 52.5% implied probability on that range, while elevated energy prices near 2.7% inflation continue to constrain private consumption. Temporary Rhine transport constraints and lingering Iran-related geopolitical risks cap upside bets on 1.3%+, priced at 18.5%, though recovering water levels have reduced downside odds on sub-0.7% outcomes. The ECB’s September 10 rate decision and October 30 preliminary GDP release remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado1.0-1.2% 53%
0.7-0.9% 19%
1.3%+ 19%
≤0.0% 6.6%
$34,211 Vol.
$34,211 Vol.
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
7%
0.1-0.3%
6%
0.4-0.6%
5%
0.7-0.9%
19%
1.0-1.2%
53%
1.3%+
19%
1.0-1.2% 53%
0.7-0.9% 19%
1.3%+ 19%
≤0.0% 6.6%
$34,211 Vol.
$34,211 Vol.
30 oct 2026
≤0.0%
$1,361 Vol.
7%
0.1-0.3%
$1,634 Vol.
6%
0.4-0.6%
$690 Vol.
5%
0.7-0.9%
$5,794 Vol.
19%
1.0-1.2%
$20,430 Vol.
53%
1.3%+
$4,302 Vol.
19%
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent stronger-than-expected German GDP prints, including a revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter gain in Q2 2026 alongside 0.9% year-over-year growth, have lifted trader consensus toward 1.0-1.2% year-over-year expansion for Q3. Export momentum and expansionary fiscal policy, including infrastructure and defense outlays, underpin the 52.5% implied probability on that range, while elevated energy prices near 2.7% inflation continue to constrain private consumption. Temporary Rhine transport constraints and lingering Iran-related geopolitical risks cap upside bets on 1.3%+, priced at 18.5%, though recovering water levels have reduced downside odds on sub-0.7% outcomes. The ECB’s September 10 rate decision and October 30 preliminary GDP release remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ET
Volumen
$34,211Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent stronger-than-expected German GDP prints, including a revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter gain in Q2 2026 alongside 0.9% year-over-year growth, have lifted trader consensus toward 1.0-1.2% year-over-year expansion for Q3. Export momentum and expansionary fiscal policy, including infrastructure and defense outlays, underpin the 52.5% implied probability on that range, while elevated energy prices near 2.7% inflation continue to constrain private consumption. Temporary Rhine transport constraints and lingering Iran-related geopolitical risks cap upside bets on 1.3%+, priced at 18.5%, though recovering water levels have reduced downside odds on sub-0.7% outcomes. The ECB’s September 10 rate decision and October 30 preliminary GDP release remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the German GDP growth rate (% change) on the same quarter a year earlier, price adjusted, as reported in the first release of the Destatis Gross Domestic Product press release for Q3 of 2026, expected to be released on October 30, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Economy/National-Accounts-Domestic-Product/_node.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
The resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter, or as a part of the next estimate's publication; however, any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$34,211Fecha de finalización
30 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 31, 2026, 7:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent stronger-than-expected German GDP prints, including a revised 0.3% quarter-on-quarter gain in Q2 2026 alongside 0.9% year-over-year growth, have lifted trader consensus toward 1.0-1.2% year-over-year expansion for Q3. Export momentum and expansionary fiscal policy, including infrastructure and defense outlays, underpin the 52.5% implied probability on that range, while elevated energy prices near 2.7% inflation continue to constrain private consumption. Temporary Rhine transport constraints and lingering Iran-related geopolitical risks cap upside bets on 1.3%+, priced at 18.5%, though recovering water levels have reduced downside odds on sub-0.7% outcomes. The ECB’s September 10 rate decision and October 30 preliminary GDP release remain key near-term catalysts for any repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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