Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of the Federal District since March 2026, leads recent polling with 34–40% in first-round simulations and dominates second-round matchups, supporting her 82.5% market position ahead of the October 4 election. Multiple surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show her margin widening as approval of her administration rose to 55% in the latest Datafolha release, while José Roberto Arruda (PSD) fell to 17–20% amid ongoing legal challenges, including a deferred candidacy at the TRE-DF with an appeal pending at the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at 13–20%, and remaining candidates register low single digits or less. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, reflecting Celina’s incumbency, coalition backing, and the compressed timeline before voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCelina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 2.7%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Celina Leão
83%
Arruda
8%
Leandro Grass
3%
Elisson
1%
Paula Belmonte
<1%
Professor Robson
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
<1%
Kiko Caputo
<1%
Cappelli
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
<1%
Celina Leão 83%
Arruda 8.3%
Leandro Grass 2.7%
Elisson <1%
$16,738 Vol.
$16,738 Vol.
4 oct 2026
Celina Leão
$9,582 Vol.
83%
Arruda
$1,928 Vol.
8%
Leandro Grass
$1,573 Vol.
3%
Elisson
$543 Vol.
1%
Paula Belmonte
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professor Robson
$530 Vol.
<1%
Expedito Mendonça
$541 Vol.
<1%
Kiko Caputo
$490 Vol.
<1%
Cappelli
$531 Vol.
<1%
Professora Samara Mineiro
$490 Vol.
<1%
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of the Federal District since March 2026, leads recent polling with 34–40% in first-round simulations and dominates second-round matchups, supporting her 82.5% market position ahead of the October 4 election. Multiple surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show her margin widening as approval of her administration rose to 55% in the latest Datafolha release, while José Roberto Arruda (PSD) fell to 17–20% amid ongoing legal challenges, including a deferred candidacy at the TRE-DF with an appeal pending at the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at 13–20%, and remaining candidates register low single digits or less. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, reflecting Celina’s incumbency, coalition backing, and the compressed timeline before voting.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Mercado abierto: Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ET
Volumen
$16,738Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of the Federal District since March 2026, leads recent polling with 34–40% in first-round simulations and dominates second-round matchups, supporting her 82.5% market position ahead of the October 4 election. Multiple surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show her margin widening as approval of her administration rose to 55% in the latest Datafolha release, while José Roberto Arruda (PSD) fell to 17–20% amid ongoing legal challenges, including a deferred candidacy at the TRE-DF with an appeal pending at the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at 13–20%, and remaining candidates register low single digits or less. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, reflecting Celina’s incumbency, coalition backing, and the compressed timeline before voting.
The Federal District gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volumen
$16,738Fecha de finalización
4 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 17, 2026, 5:44 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Celina Leão (PP), the incumbent governor of the Federal District since March 2026, leads recent polling with 34–40% in first-round simulations and dominates second-round matchups, supporting her 82.5% market position ahead of the October 4 election. Multiple surveys from Datafolha, Real Time Big Data, and Quaest show her margin widening as approval of her administration rose to 55% in the latest Datafolha release, while José Roberto Arruda (PSD) fell to 17–20% amid ongoing legal challenges, including a deferred candidacy at the TRE-DF with an appeal pending at the TSE. Leandro Grass (PT) trails at 13–20%, and remaining candidates register low single digits or less. Trader consensus aligns with these trends, reflecting Celina’s incumbency, coalition backing, and the compressed timeline before voting.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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