Traders assign a 97.5% probability to "No" on Phoebe Gates facing arrest by December 31 because no criminal charges, regulatory enforcement actions, or investigations have been publicly initiated against her or Phia despite Bloomberg reporting on cookie stuffing practices in the company's affiliate marketing browser extension. Internal Slack messages indicate awareness of the attribution tactics months earlier, yet Phia quickly disabled the features, began reversing transactions, and added compliance oversight without triggering federal wire fraud proceedings. Such cases typically resolve through civil settlements or fines rather than arrests, especially for well-resourced founders, and the remaining timeframe leaves little room for a full probe to culminate in detention. Unexpected developments like sudden DOJ intervention could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to low near-term risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPhoebe Gates bis zum 31. Dezember verhaftet?
Phoebe Gates bis zum 31. Dezember verhaftet?
Ja
3% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
3% Chance
NEU
NEU
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.5% probability to "No" on Phoebe Gates facing arrest by December 31 because no criminal charges, regulatory enforcement actions, or investigations have been publicly initiated against her or Phia despite Bloomberg reporting on cookie stuffing practices in the company's affiliate marketing browser extension. Internal Slack messages indicate awareness of the attribution tactics months earlier, yet Phia quickly disabled the features, began reversing transactions, and added compliance oversight without triggering federal wire fraud proceedings. Such cases typically resolve through civil settlements or fines rather than arrests, especially for well-resourced founders, and the remaining timeframe leaves little room for a full probe to culminate in detention. Unexpected developments like sudden DOJ intervention could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to low near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Volumen
$2,833Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 97.5% probability to "No" on Phoebe Gates facing arrest by December 31 because no criminal charges, regulatory enforcement actions, or investigations have been publicly initiated against her or Phia despite Bloomberg reporting on cookie stuffing practices in the company's affiliate marketing browser extension. Internal Slack messages indicate awareness of the attribution tactics months earlier, yet Phia quickly disabled the features, began reversing transactions, and added compliance oversight without triggering federal wire fraud proceedings. Such cases typically resolve through civil settlements or fines rather than arrests, especially for well-resourced founders, and the remaining timeframe leaves little room for a full probe to culminate in detention. Unexpected developments like sudden DOJ intervention could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to low near-term risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Phoebe Gates is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,833Enddatum
1. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Aug 14, 2026, 4:10 PM ETAbwickler
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 97.5% probability to "No" on Phoebe Gates facing arrest by December 31 because no criminal charges, regulatory enforcement actions, or investigations have been publicly initiated against her or Phia despite Bloomberg reporting on cookie stuffing practices in the company's affiliate marketing browser extension. Internal Slack messages indicate awareness of the attribution tactics months earlier, yet Phia quickly disabled the features, began reversing transactions, and added compliance oversight without triggering federal wire fraud proceedings. Such cases typically resolve through civil settlements or fines rather than arrests, especially for well-resourced founders, and the remaining timeframe leaves little room for a full probe to culminate in detention. Unexpected developments like sudden DOJ intervention could theoretically shift odds, but current evidence points to low near-term risk.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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