Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination in May 2026 by defeating a primary challenger with more than 81 percent of the vote, while Republican James Hayes advanced unopposed. The district’s solid Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent “Solid D” or “Safe D” ratings from nonpartisan analysts, combined with Lee’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million in cash on hand against Hayes’s limited resources, has reinforced trader expectations. Lee previously defeated Hayes by double digits in 2024. With the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026, the current market consensus aligns with the district’s voter registration patterns and historical results. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political shift would be required to materially alter the implied probability, though the seat’s structural advantages make such outcomes low-likelihood.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertPA-12 Wahlsieger
PA-12 Wahlsieger
$16,975 Vol.
$16,975 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Summer Lee (D)
95%
James Hayes (R)
3%
$16,975 Vol.
$16,975 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Summer Lee (D)
$12,284 Vol.
95%
James Hayes (R)
$4,691 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination in May 2026 by defeating a primary challenger with more than 81 percent of the vote, while Republican James Hayes advanced unopposed. The district’s solid Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent “Solid D” or “Safe D” ratings from nonpartisan analysts, combined with Lee’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million in cash on hand against Hayes’s limited resources, has reinforced trader expectations. Lee previously defeated Hayes by double digits in 2024. With the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026, the current market consensus aligns with the district’s voter registration patterns and historical results. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political shift would be required to materially alter the implied probability, though the seat’s structural advantages make such outcomes low-likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$16,975Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination in May 2026 by defeating a primary challenger with more than 81 percent of the vote, while Republican James Hayes advanced unopposed. The district’s solid Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent “Solid D” or “Safe D” ratings from nonpartisan analysts, combined with Lee’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million in cash on hand against Hayes’s limited resources, has reinforced trader expectations. Lee previously defeated Hayes by double digits in 2024. With the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026, the current market consensus aligns with the district’s voter registration patterns and historical results. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political shift would be required to materially alter the implied probability, though the seat’s structural advantages make such outcomes low-likelihood.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,975Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Summer Lee secured the Democratic nomination in May 2026 by defeating a primary challenger with more than 81 percent of the vote, while Republican James Hayes advanced unopposed. The district’s solid Democratic partisan lean, reflected in consistent “Solid D” or “Safe D” ratings from nonpartisan analysts, combined with Lee’s substantial fundraising edge exceeding $1.3 million in cash on hand against Hayes’s limited resources, has reinforced trader expectations. Lee previously defeated Hayes by double digits in 2024. With the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026, the current market consensus aligns with the district’s voter registration patterns and historical results. A late-breaking scandal, significant health event, or national political shift would be required to materially alter the implied probability, though the seat’s structural advantages make such outcomes low-likelihood.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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