Adam Smith’s long incumbency and the Washington 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit presidential margins for Democrats, anchor trader expectations for his reelection on November 3. The August 2026 top-two primary confirmed the general election matchup, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler, a perennial challenger who has faced the incumbent multiple times. Smith’s substantial fundraising edge, institutional role on the House Armed Services Committee, and the absence of competitive primary threats have reinforced the market’s 95.9% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Basler’s limited resources and the district’s voting history leave Republicans with minimal path to victory absent a major late-cycle shift in national conditions or candidate circumstances before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWA-09 Wahlsieger
WA-09 Wahlsieger
$51,337 Vol.
$51,337 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Adam Smith (D)
96%
Doug Basler (R)
2%
$51,337 Vol.
$51,337 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Adam Smith (D)
$11,845 Vol.
96%
Doug Basler (R)
$39,492 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adam Smith’s long incumbency and the Washington 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit presidential margins for Democrats, anchor trader expectations for his reelection on November 3. The August 2026 top-two primary confirmed the general election matchup, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler, a perennial challenger who has faced the incumbent multiple times. Smith’s substantial fundraising edge, institutional role on the House Armed Services Committee, and the absence of competitive primary threats have reinforced the market’s 95.9% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Basler’s limited resources and the district’s voting history leave Republicans with minimal path to victory absent a major late-cycle shift in national conditions or candidate circumstances before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$51,337Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Adam Smith’s long incumbency and the Washington 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit presidential margins for Democrats, anchor trader expectations for his reelection on November 3. The August 2026 top-two primary confirmed the general election matchup, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler, a perennial challenger who has faced the incumbent multiple times. Smith’s substantial fundraising edge, institutional role on the House Armed Services Committee, and the absence of competitive primary threats have reinforced the market’s 95.9% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Basler’s limited resources and the district’s voting history leave Republicans with minimal path to victory absent a major late-cycle shift in national conditions or candidate circumstances before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$51,337Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Adam Smith’s long incumbency and the Washington 9th district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+22 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit presidential margins for Democrats, anchor trader expectations for his reelection on November 3. The August 2026 top-two primary confirmed the general election matchup, with Smith advancing comfortably ahead of Republican Doug Basler, a perennial challenger who has faced the incumbent multiple times. Smith’s substantial fundraising edge, institutional role on the House Armed Services Committee, and the absence of competitive primary threats have reinforced the market’s 95.9% consensus for the Democratic nominee. Basler’s limited resources and the district’s voting history leave Republicans with minimal path to victory absent a major late-cycle shift in national conditions or candidate circumstances before Election Day.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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