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Politik·Midterms

NY-19 Wahlsieger

icon for NY-19 Wahlsieger
Politik·Midterms

NY-19 Wahlsieger

Polymarket

$21,045 Vol.

Polymarket

$21,045 Vol.

Josh Riley (D)

$10,202 Vol.

94%

Peter Oberacker (R)

$10,843 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 House race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, superior fundraising exceeding $4.8 million compared to challenger Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million, and the district’s recent leftward shift. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican support has eroded sharply, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in planned ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from priority lists after controversies including a resurfaced 2015 social media post. These factors have shaped trader consensus around Riley’s strong re-election prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces structural headwinds that could only shift with major late developments such as national political realignments or unforeseen candidate events.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,045
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Josh Riley holds a commanding position in the NY-19 House race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, superior fundraising exceeding $4.8 million compared to challenger Peter Oberacker’s roughly $1.2 million, and the district’s recent leftward shift. Forecasters rate the race as Lean or Likely Democratic. Republican support has eroded sharply, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in planned ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from priority lists after controversies including a resurfaced 2015 social media post. These factors have shaped trader consensus around Riley’s strong re-election prospects ahead of the November 3 general election. Oberacker secured the GOP nomination in June but faces structural headwinds that could only shift with major late developments such as national political realignments or unforeseen candidate events.

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,045
Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET

Abwickler

0x2F5e3684c...

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den NY-20 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den NY-20 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

96%
Ja
icon for Wird die Demokratische Partei den NY-18 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

Wird die Demokratische Partei den NY-18 Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen?

93%
Ja
icon for Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus TX-19 gewinnen?

Wird die Republikanische Partei den Sitz im Repräsentantenhaus TX-19 gewinnen?

95%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„NY-19 Wahlsieger" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 2 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Josh Riley (D)" mit 94%, gefolgt von „Peter Oberacker (R)" mit 5%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 94¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 94% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „NY-19 Wahlsieger" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $21K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 16, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „NY-19 Wahlsieger" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 2 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „NY-19 Wahlsieger" ist „Josh Riley (D)" mit 94%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 94% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Peter Oberacker (R)" mit 5%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „NY-19 Wahlsieger" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.