Ann Wagner holds a modest edge in the Missouri 2nd District House race as voters decide the outcome today. Incumbency, stronger fundraising, and consistent Republican support in the suburban St. Louis district underpin trader consensus around her 58.5% implied probability. Recent late-October and early-November polls from Emerson and Public Policy Polling showed the contest tightening to within a few points or a slight Wellman lead, reflecting national headwinds on foreign policy and local turnout dynamics that have narrowed historical GOP margins. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Likely Republican overall, with the outcome hinging on final voter participation in this competitive battleground.