Incumbent Republican Jason Smith faces Democrat Christopher Reichard and Libertarian Rebecca Sharpe Lombard in Missouri’s 8th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following August primaries where Smith secured 86% and Reichard won the Democratic nomination. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+27 partisan lean and rural southeast Missouri base. Trader pricing across Republican margin buckets remains dispersed, with the leading 40-45% interval at 26.5%, because limited public polling and the absence of late-cycle catalysts leave the precise victory margin uncertain despite the strong structural advantage for the GOP. Redistricting litigation has created statewide ballot uncertainty but has not altered assessments of this district. Low Democratic fundraising and the incumbent’s established support reinforce expectations of a comfortable Republican win, while any shift would require unexpected turnout swings or national wave effects within the final weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRepublikaner 40-45 % 28%
Republikaner 55-60% 18%
Republikaner 45-50% 15%
Republikaner 50-55% 12%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 60 %+
11%
Republikaner 55-60%
18%
Republikaner 50-55%
12%
Republikaner 45-50%
15%
Republikaner 40-45 %
28%
Republikaner 35-40 %
9%
Republikaner 30-35 %
7%
Republikaner 20-30%
7%
Republikaner 0-20%
7%
Demokrat gewinnt
1%
Republikaner 40-45 % 28%
Republikaner 55-60% 18%
Republikaner 45-50% 15%
Republikaner 50-55% 12%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republikaner 60 %+
$407 Vol.
11%
Republikaner 55-60%
$320 Vol.
18%
Republikaner 50-55%
$247 Vol.
12%
Republikaner 45-50%
$244 Vol.
15%
Republikaner 40-45 %
$1,678 Vol.
28%
Republikaner 35-40 %
$333 Vol.
9%
Republikaner 30-35 %
$254 Vol.
7%
Republikaner 20-30%
$231 Vol.
7%
Republikaner 0-20%
$150 Vol.
7%
Demokrat gewinnt
$129 Vol.
1%
The 2026 MO-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Jason Smith faces Democrat Christopher Reichard and Libertarian Rebecca Sharpe Lombard in Missouri’s 8th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following August primaries where Smith secured 86% and Reichard won the Democratic nomination. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+27 partisan lean and rural southeast Missouri base. Trader pricing across Republican margin buckets remains dispersed, with the leading 40-45% interval at 26.5%, because limited public polling and the absence of late-cycle catalysts leave the precise victory margin uncertain despite the strong structural advantage for the GOP. Redistricting litigation has created statewide ballot uncertainty but has not altered assessments of this district. Low Democratic fundraising and the incumbent’s established support reinforce expectations of a comfortable Republican win, while any shift would require unexpected turnout swings or national wave effects within the final weeks.
The 2026 MO-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 11:47 AM ET
Volumen
$3,995Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 11:47 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MO-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Incumbent Republican Jason Smith faces Democrat Christopher Reichard and Libertarian Rebecca Sharpe Lombard in Missouri’s 8th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following August primaries where Smith secured 86% and Reichard won the Democratic nomination. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+27 partisan lean and rural southeast Missouri base. Trader pricing across Republican margin buckets remains dispersed, with the leading 40-45% interval at 26.5%, because limited public polling and the absence of late-cycle catalysts leave the precise victory margin uncertain despite the strong structural advantage for the GOP. Redistricting litigation has created statewide ballot uncertainty but has not altered assessments of this district. Low Democratic fundraising and the incumbent’s established support reinforce expectations of a comfortable Republican win, while any shift would require unexpected turnout swings or national wave effects within the final weeks.
The 2026 MO-08 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-08 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$3,995Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 11:47 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Republican Jason Smith faces Democrat Christopher Reichard and Libertarian Rebecca Sharpe Lombard in Missouri’s 8th congressional district on November 3, 2026, following August primaries where Smith secured 86% and Reichard won the Democratic nomination. All major forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting its R+27 partisan lean and rural southeast Missouri base. Trader pricing across Republican margin buckets remains dispersed, with the leading 40-45% interval at 26.5%, because limited public polling and the absence of late-cycle catalysts leave the precise victory margin uncertain despite the strong structural advantage for the GOP. Redistricting litigation has created statewide ballot uncertainty but has not altered assessments of this district. Low Democratic fundraising and the incumbent’s established support reinforce expectations of a comfortable Republican win, while any shift would require unexpected turnout swings or national wave effects within the final weeks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk MO-07 im Jahr 2026 mit 35%-40% Vorsprung gewinnen?
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