Missouri’s 6th Congressional District remains a structurally Republican seat following Sam Graves’s retirement, with GOP nominee Chris Stigall facing Democrat Josh Smead in the November 3 general election after both won August 4 primaries. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters support trader expectations of a double-digit Republican margin, though recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland and suburban territory has introduced modest uncertainty around turnout in those pockets. Limited public polling leaves the market reflecting the seat’s rural agricultural base, Stigall’s primary endorsement from Graves and party infrastructure, and broader midterm dynamics that could compress or expand the final spread. Ongoing litigation over the congressional map adds another variable that could affect voter composition before ballots are cast.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertRepublican 15-20% 17%
Republican 10-15% 16%
Republican 20-25% 15%
Republican 25-30% 13%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republican 35%+
9%
Republican 30-35%
8%
Republican 25-30%
13%
Republican 20-25%
15%
Republican 15-20%
17%
Republican 10-15%
16%
Republican 5-10%
13%
Republican 0-5%
7%
Democrat Wins
<1%
Republican 15-20% 17%
Republican 10-15% 16%
Republican 20-25% 15%
Republican 25-30% 13%
NEU
NEU
3. Nov. 2026
Republican 35%+
$107 Vol.
9%
Republican 30-35%
$82 Vol.
8%
Republican 25-30%
$561 Vol.
13%
Republican 20-25%
$389 Vol.
15%
Republican 15-20%
$203 Vol.
17%
Republican 10-15%
$146 Vol.
16%
Republican 5-10%
$136 Vol.
13%
Republican 0-5%
$257 Vol.
7%
Democrat Wins
$161 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 MO-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Missouri’s 6th Congressional District remains a structurally Republican seat following Sam Graves’s retirement, with GOP nominee Chris Stigall facing Democrat Josh Smead in the November 3 general election after both won August 4 primaries. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters support trader expectations of a double-digit Republican margin, though recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland and suburban territory has introduced modest uncertainty around turnout in those pockets. Limited public polling leaves the market reflecting the seat’s rural agricultural base, Stigall’s primary endorsement from Graves and party infrastructure, and broader midterm dynamics that could compress or expand the final spread. Ongoing litigation over the congressional map adds another variable that could affect voter composition before ballots are cast.
The 2026 MO-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 10, 2026, 11:53 AM ET
Volumen
$2,042Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 11:53 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 MO-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Missouri’s 6th Congressional District remains a structurally Republican seat following Sam Graves’s retirement, with GOP nominee Chris Stigall facing Democrat Josh Smead in the November 3 general election after both won August 4 primaries. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters support trader expectations of a double-digit Republican margin, though recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland and suburban territory has introduced modest uncertainty around turnout in those pockets. Limited public polling leaves the market reflecting the seat’s rural agricultural base, Stigall’s primary endorsement from Graves and party infrastructure, and broader midterm dynamics that could compress or expand the final spread. Ongoing litigation over the congressional map adds another variable that could affect voter composition before ballots are cast.
The 2026 MO-06 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 MO-06 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$2,042Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 10, 2026, 11:53 AM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Missouri’s 6th Congressional District remains a structurally Republican seat following Sam Graves’s retirement, with GOP nominee Chris Stigall facing Democrat Josh Smead in the November 3 general election after both won August 4 primaries. The district’s R+13 Partisan Voter Index and consistent “Solid Republican” or “Safe Republican” ratings from forecasters support trader expectations of a double-digit Republican margin, though recent redistricting that incorporated additional Kansas City Northland and suburban territory has introduced modest uncertainty around turnout in those pockets. Limited public polling leaves the market reflecting the seat’s rural agricultural base, Stigall’s primary endorsement from Graves and party infrastructure, and broader midterm dynamics that could compress or expand the final spread. Ongoing litigation over the congressional map adds another variable that could affect voter composition before ballots are cast.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertVerwandte
Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Wahl zum Repräsentantenhaus im Bezirk MO-07 im Jahr 2026 mit 35%-40% Vorsprung gewinnen?
28%
Ja
Wird der Kandidat der Republikanischen Partei die Hauswahl 2026 im MO-03 mit 5%-10% gewinnen?
26%
Ja
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-05 House election by 3% or more?
69%
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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