Mayes Middleton holds an 85% implied probability in the Texas attorney general race because the state has delivered Republican victories in every AG contest since 1998, and the open seat created by Ken Paxton’s Senate bid favors the GOP nominee. Middleton secured the nomination after winning the May 26 Republican runoff against Chip Roy, building name recognition through significant spending and endorsements from figures including Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick. Nathan Johnson, the Democratic nominee who prevailed in his own May runoff, trails in late-summer polling by margins of two to five points amid a large undecided share, reflecting limited crossover appeal in a state where Republicans have historically won statewide by double digits. Sabato’s Crystal Ball rates the contest Likely Republican, consistent with the market’s pricing of Johnson near 16%. The November 3 general election remains the key resolution date, with no major late-breaking developments reported in the past month.