**Bob Onder, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** He secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with 66% against challenger John Fraser and benefits from strong fundraising—nearly $950,000 raised versus roughly $43,000 for Democratic nominee Bethany Mann, who won her primary with 69%. The district’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by Onder’s 26-point margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus. Recent redistricting litigation, including a Missouri Supreme Court ruling and a federal temporary restraining order affecting map implementation, has created procedural uncertainty but has not materially shifted the competitive balance. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate health issue or significant scandal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMO-03 Wahlsieger
MO-03 Wahlsieger
$28,371 Vol.
$28,371 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Bob Onder (R)
93%
Bethany Mann (D)
7%
$28,371 Vol.
$28,371 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Bob Onder (R)
$12,625 Vol.
93%
Bethany Mann (D)
$15,746 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Bob Onder, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** He secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with 66% against challenger John Fraser and benefits from strong fundraising—nearly $950,000 raised versus roughly $43,000 for Democratic nominee Bethany Mann, who won her primary with 69%. The district’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by Onder’s 26-point margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus. Recent redistricting litigation, including a Missouri Supreme Court ruling and a federal temporary restraining order affecting map implementation, has created procedural uncertainty but has not materially shifted the competitive balance. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate health issue or significant scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volumen
$28,371Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).**Bob Onder, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** He secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with 66% against challenger John Fraser and benefits from strong fundraising—nearly $950,000 raised versus roughly $43,000 for Democratic nominee Bethany Mann, who won her primary with 69%. The district’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by Onder’s 26-point margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus. Recent redistricting litigation, including a Missouri Supreme Court ruling and a federal temporary restraining order affecting map implementation, has created procedural uncertainty but has not materially shifted the competitive balance. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate health issue or significant scandal.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$28,371Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...**Bob Onder, the Republican incumbent first elected in 2024, holds a commanding lead in Missouri’s 3rd Congressional District heading into the November 3, 2026 general election.** He secured the GOP nomination in the August 4 primary with 66% against challenger John Fraser and benefits from strong fundraising—nearly $950,000 raised versus roughly $43,000 for Democratic nominee Bethany Mann, who won her primary with 69%. The district’s Republican tilt, demonstrated by Onder’s 26-point margin in 2024, underpins trader consensus. Recent redistricting litigation, including a Missouri Supreme Court ruling and a federal temporary restraining order affecting map implementation, has created procedural uncertainty but has not materially shifted the competitive balance. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large swing in voter turnout or a major unforeseen development such as a candidate health issue or significant scandal.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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