**Persistent record heat across central Texas drove the overwhelming 94.5% market-implied probability for a 74–75°F low on September 21, 2026.** Official NWS observations from Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F early that morning, part of a broader September pattern in which mean lows reached 77.7°F through mid-month—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 66°F. High pressure, minimal cloud cover, and the absence of any significant frontal passages maintained elevated overnight temperatures consistent with the month’s record-warm start. Traders priced in this verified observational data, recognizing that only an unforecasted surge of cooler, drier air could have dropped readings into the lower bins. No such development occurred, leaving the 74–75°F outcome as the near-certain resolution range under standard NWS station criteria.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in Austin am 21. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in Austin am 21. September?
74-75°F 100%
67°F oder darunter <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$240 Vol.
$240 Vol.
21. Sep. 2026
67°F oder darunter
Nein
68-69°F
Nein
70-71°F
Nein
72-73°F
Nein
74-75°F
Ja
76-77°F
Nein
78-79 °F
Nein
80-81°F
Nein
82-83°F
Nein
84-85°F
Nein
86°F oder höher
Nein
74-75°F 100%
67°F oder darunter <1%
68-69°F <1%
70-71°F <1%
$240 Vol.
$240 Vol.
21. Sep. 2026
67°F oder darunter
$0 Vol.
Nein
68-69°F
$0 Vol.
Nein
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
Nein
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
Nein
74-75°F
$38 Vol.
Ja
76-77°F
$35 Vol.
Nein
78-79 °F
$35 Vol.
Nein
80-81°F
$50 Vol.
Nein
82-83°F
$15 Vol.
Nein
84-85°F
$36 Vol.
Nein
86°F oder höher
$31 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent record heat across central Texas drove the overwhelming 94.5% market-implied probability for a 74–75°F low on September 21, 2026.** Official NWS observations from Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F early that morning, part of a broader September pattern in which mean lows reached 77.7°F through mid-month—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 66°F. High pressure, minimal cloud cover, and the absence of any significant frontal passages maintained elevated overnight temperatures consistent with the month’s record-warm start. Traders priced in this verified observational data, recognizing that only an unforecasted surge of cooler, drier air could have dropped readings into the lower bins. No such development occurred, leaving the 74–75°F outcome as the near-certain resolution range under standard NWS station criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Volumen
$240Enddatum
21. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47de9d...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent record heat across central Texas drove the overwhelming 94.5% market-implied probability for a 74–75°F low on September 21, 2026.** Official NWS observations from Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F early that morning, part of a broader September pattern in which mean lows reached 77.7°F through mid-month—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 66°F. High pressure, minimal cloud cover, and the absence of any significant frontal passages maintained elevated overnight temperatures consistent with the month’s record-warm start. Traders priced in this verified observational data, recognizing that only an unforecasted surge of cooler, drier air could have dropped readings into the lower bins. No such development occurred, leaving the 74–75°F outcome as the near-certain resolution range under standard NWS station criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$240Enddatum
21. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 19, 2026, 3:30 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47de9d...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
**Persistent record heat across central Texas drove the overwhelming 94.5% market-implied probability for a 74–75°F low on September 21, 2026.** Official NWS observations from Austin Bergstrom International Airport recorded a minimum of 73°F early that morning, part of a broader September pattern in which mean lows reached 77.7°F through mid-month—well above the 1991–2020 climatological average of 66°F. High pressure, minimal cloud cover, and the absence of any significant frontal passages maintained elevated overnight temperatures consistent with the month’s record-warm start. Traders priced in this verified observational data, recognizing that only an unforecasted surge of cooler, drier air could have dropped readings into the lower bins. No such development occurred, leaving the 74–75°F outcome as the near-certain resolution range under standard NWS station criteria.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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