**Persistent upper-level ridging over Texas is driving unseasonably hot conditions into September 23, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 96–99°F highs (combined ~90% implied probability).** Official National Weather Service guidance and multiple forecast models project a high near 96–100°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and minimal afternoon storm chances (20% or less) that are unlikely to develop early enough to suppress peak temperatures. Dew points near seasonal highs will boost heat indices above 105°F, but the core air temperature consensus centers on the upper 90s. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, with the ridge expected to hold through midweek before gradual weakening. This stability, combined with September climatology favoring occasional 100°F+ readings in Austin, underpins trader consensus on the 96–99°F bins while leaving limited room for cooler or record-hot outliers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Austin am 23. September?
Höchste Temperatur in Austin am 23. September?
96-97°F 54%
98-99°F 39%
94-95°F 5%
100-101°F 5%
NEU
NEU
23. Sep. 2026
89°F oder niedriger
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
2%
94-95°F
5%
96-97°F
54%
98-99°F
39%
100-101°F
5%
102-103°F
2%
104-105°F
1%
106-107°F
<1%
108°F oder höher
<1%
96-97°F 54%
98-99°F 39%
94-95°F 5%
100-101°F 5%
NEU
NEU
23. Sep. 2026
89°F oder niedriger
$104 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$116 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$347 Vol.
2%
94-95°F
$201 Vol.
5%
96-97°F
$1,600 Vol.
54%
98-99°F
$211 Vol.
39%
100-101°F
$296 Vol.
5%
102-103°F
$77 Vol.
2%
104-105°F
$428 Vol.
1%
106-107°F
$95 Vol.
<1%
108°F oder höher
$95 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent upper-level ridging over Texas is driving unseasonably hot conditions into September 23, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 96–99°F highs (combined ~90% implied probability).** Official National Weather Service guidance and multiple forecast models project a high near 96–100°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and minimal afternoon storm chances (20% or less) that are unlikely to develop early enough to suppress peak temperatures. Dew points near seasonal highs will boost heat indices above 105°F, but the core air temperature consensus centers on the upper 90s. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, with the ridge expected to hold through midweek before gradual weakening. This stability, combined with September climatology favoring occasional 100°F+ readings in Austin, underpins trader consensus on the 96–99°F bins while leaving limited room for cooler or record-hot outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volumen
$3,512Enddatum
23. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Persistent upper-level ridging over Texas is driving unseasonably hot conditions into September 23, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 96–99°F highs (combined ~90% implied probability).** Official National Weather Service guidance and multiple forecast models project a high near 96–100°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and minimal afternoon storm chances (20% or less) that are unlikely to develop early enough to suppress peak temperatures. Dew points near seasonal highs will boost heat indices above 105°F, but the core air temperature consensus centers on the upper 90s. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, with the ridge expected to hold through midweek before gradual weakening. This stability, combined with September climatology favoring occasional 100°F+ readings in Austin, underpins trader consensus on the 96–99°F bins while leaving limited room for cooler or record-hot outliers.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kaus
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,512Enddatum
23. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 21, 2026, 3:56 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kausAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...**Persistent upper-level ridging over Texas is driving unseasonably hot conditions into September 23, supporting the market's heavy weighting toward 96–99°F highs (combined ~90% implied probability).** Official National Weather Service guidance and multiple forecast models project a high near 96–100°F under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies, light easterly winds, and minimal afternoon storm chances (20% or less) that are unlikely to develop early enough to suppress peak temperatures. Dew points near seasonal highs will boost heat indices above 105°F, but the core air temperature consensus centers on the upper 90s. Recent model runs show little day-to-day shift, with the ridge expected to hold through midweek before gradual weakening. This stability, combined with September climatology favoring occasional 100°F+ readings in Austin, underpins trader consensus on the 96–99°F bins while leaving limited room for cooler or record-hot outliers.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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