NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecasts indicate the highest Kp index on October 2 will reach 4.67, corresponding to G1 minor storm levels during evening UTC hours, driven by a glancing coronal mass ejection impact from a September 28 filament eruption. Observed activity has remained quiet with Kp values at or below 2 over the prior day, and current solar wind conditions show limited coupling potential. Ensemble modeling assigns roughly 95% probability that peak disturbance stays below G1 thresholds, while deterministic runs allow for brief Kp 5 conditions. Low overall solar activity and absence of stronger high-speed stream effects further constrain escalation to G2 or higher, aligning trader-implied odds favoring sub-G1 outcomes with the latest official guidance.