Fabio Roscioli maintains a dominant position in trader pricing for the September 27-28, 2026, by-election in Italy's Calabria-05 single-member constituency because the centre-right coalition (Forza Italia, Fratelli d'Italia, Lega and allies) has unified behind him as the official candidate. The seat opened after Francesco Cannizzaro resigned following his decisive May 2026 mayoral victory in Reggio Calabria, where the same coalition secured roughly 65 percent of the vote and a strong council majority. Roscioli's national role as Forza Italia treasurer and ties to the Berlusconi family have consolidated party machinery support in a constituency with a consistent centre-right tilt at both national and regional levels. Domenico Giannetta's separate Futuro Nazionale candidacy, backed by Roberto Vannacci, has drawn limited right-leaning support and explains his secondary market share. Frank Benedetto heads a broad centre-left grouping that includes the PD and M5S, yet faces the structural headwinds of low expected turnout and the coalition's weaker recent local results. Francesco Toscano and other minor entries register negligible pricing. With the vote less than three weeks away, campaign activity has focused on local visibility for the Rome-based Roscioli and efforts to maximize coalition turnout.