Paul St-Pierre Plamondon leads trader assessments for Quebec’s next premier as the Parti Québécois maintains a narrow but steady polling edge over the Coalition Avenir Québec ahead of the October 5 election. Recent campaign developments, including responses to U.S. tariffs and counter-tariffs, have kept economic pressures and sovereignty timing in focus, with Plamondon pledging a referendum even in a minority government. Christine Fréchette, the current CAQ premier, trails in the market as her party seeks to defend seats amid voter shifts, while leaders of the Liberals, Conservatives, and Québec solidaire register minimal probabilities consistent with their lower projected seat totals under first-past-the-post rules.