Google's persistent delays on its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's strong 87.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model has slipped repeatedly amid reports of shortfalls in coding and agentic benchmarks, remaining in partner testing with no public API or general availability as of mid-September. Recent activity centers on lighter variants like the September 15 Gemini 3.8 Live and 3.8 Live Extended Thinking releases plus earlier Flash updates, while DeepMind has begun pre-training Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google's cautious rollout history and competitive pressure from rivals against any last-minute confirmation that could shift the near-term odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNo release by September 30 88%
September 24 3.5%
September 30 3.3%
September 22 3.0%
$102,933 Vol.
$102,933 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
2%
September 22
3%
September 23
3%
September 24
3%
September 25
1%
September 26
<1%
September 27
1%
September 28
<1%
September 29
2%
September 30
3%
No release by September 30
88%
No release by September 30 88%
September 24 3.5%
September 30 3.3%
September 22 3.0%
$102,933 Vol.
$102,933 Vol.
Sep 17, 2026
September 17
$572 Vol.
2%
September 18
$310 Vol.
<1%
September 19
$307 Vol.
1%
September 20
$307 Vol.
1%
September 21
$537 Vol.
2%
September 22
$584 Vol.
3%
September 23
$469 Vol.
3%
September 24
$594 Vol.
3%
September 25
$303 Vol.
1%
September 26
$305 Vol.
<1%
September 27
$307 Vol.
1%
September 28
$508 Vol.
<1%
September 29
$384 Vol.
2%
September 30
$849 Vol.
3%
No release by September 30
$87,810 Vol.
88%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's persistent delays on its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's strong 87.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model has slipped repeatedly amid reports of shortfalls in coding and agentic benchmarks, remaining in partner testing with no public API or general availability as of mid-September. Recent activity centers on lighter variants like the September 15 Gemini 3.8 Live and 3.8 Live Extended Thinking releases plus earlier Flash updates, while DeepMind has begun pre-training Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google's cautious rollout history and competitive pressure from rivals against any last-minute confirmation that could shift the near-term odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
ভলিউম
$102,933শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Google's persistent delays on its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's strong 87.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model has slipped repeatedly amid reports of shortfalls in coding and agentic benchmarks, remaining in partner testing with no public API or general availability as of mid-September. Recent activity centers on lighter variants like the September 15 Gemini 3.8 Live and 3.8 Live Extended Thinking releases plus earlier Flash updates, while DeepMind has begun pre-training Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google's cautious rollout history and competitive pressure from rivals against any last-minute confirmation that could shift the near-term odds.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$102,933শেষ তারিখ
Oct 1, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ETরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...Google's persistent delays on its flagship Gemini 3.5 Pro large language model explain the market's strong 87.5% implied probability of no Pro release by September 30. Announced at I/O in May 2026 with a June target, the model has slipped repeatedly amid reports of shortfalls in coding and agentic benchmarks, remaining in partner testing with no public API or general availability as of mid-September. Recent activity centers on lighter variants like the September 15 Gemini 3.8 Live and 3.8 Live Extended Thinking releases plus earlier Flash updates, while DeepMind has begun pre-training Gemini 4. Traders weigh Google's cautious rollout history and competitive pressure from rivals against any last-minute confirmation that could shift the near-term odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা