Isabelle Blais of the Parti Québécois holds the highest implied probability in the Maskinongé riding at 64.5 percent, ahead of incumbent Simon Allaire of the Coalition Avenir Québec at 35.5 percent. Allaire initially signaled he would not seek another term but reversed course after the August 27 call of the October 5 general election, while Blais secured the PQ nomination in April with strong local backing as a Mauricie native and public figure. Recent riding-level projections from early September show the PQ ahead on vote intention, reflecting broader provincial shifts away from the CAQ government amid the ongoing campaign. Minor-party candidates, including the Liberal, Québec solidaire, and Conservative nominees, remain at single-digit implied odds consistent with historical patterns in the district. Advance voting begins later this month, with the outcome hinging on turnout among core partisan blocs in the Mauricie region.