In the Côte-du-Sud riding, trader consensus reflects a tight three-way contest heading into the October 5 Quebec general election, with Valérie Hamel of the Parti Québécois holding a narrow lead over Frédéric Poulin of the Conservative Party and incumbent Mathieu Rivest of the Coalition Avenir Québec. Recent provincial polling trends and local projections show the CAQ’s 2022 margin eroding amid broader shifts toward the PQ and PCQ in eastern Quebec ridings, creating volatility in this mixed rural district. Candidate announcements earlier in the summer, including Hamel’s selection and Poulin’s return bid, have sharpened focus on party platforms and regional issues without producing a clear frontrunner. Advance voting begins later this month, and any late campaign momentum or turnout differences among key voter groups could still separate the leading contenders before election night.