**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
13% সম্ভাবনা
$202,895 Vol.
$202,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% সম্ভাবনা
$202,895 Vol.
$202,895 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.**
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
ভলিউম
$202,895শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.**
NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ভলিউম
$202,895শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...**Improved planetary defense monitoring and the absence of any detected large near-Earth objects on collision trajectories underpin the strong 87.5% market-implied odds against a 10kt+ meteor strike in 2026.** NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and ESA risk lists show no objects large enough to deliver that energy (roughly Chelyabinsk-scale or greater) with non-negligible impact probability this year, while recent close approaches involve only meter-scale bodies that burn up harmlessly. Small, pre-detected impacts like 2026 RW1 further demonstrate effective early-warning systems without indicating larger undetected threats. With just months remaining and continuous radar and optical surveys ruling out major risks, traders see little realistic pathway to a qualifying event before year-end, though sudden discovery of a fast-moving object remains a low-probability tail risk.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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