**No at 74.5% reflects the lack of any confirmed 5-kiloton or greater bolide through the first nine months of 2026, aligning with historical variability in small near-Earth object impacts.** NASA CNEOS and ESA monitoring record no airbursts meeting the energy threshold this year, with recent pre-impact detections limited to sub-meter objects such as 2026 RW1 (roughly 0.8–1 m) that released far less energy over the Indian Ocean. Base-rate estimates from satellite and infrasound data indicate an average global frequency of roughly one 5 kt event per year, yet these strikes follow a stochastic distribution that routinely produces years without qualifying impacts. No known NEOs on collision trajectories capable of delivering that yield remain on current Sentry or close-approach lists. Continuous surveillance through December will determine whether an undetected object alters the outcome.