Extensive NASA CNEOS monitoring through optical surveys, radar, and the Sentry impact-monitoring system has identified no catalogued near-Earth objects on collision trajectories capable of producing a 100-kiloton or greater airburst in 2026. Historical bolide data from the JPL Fireball repository show only two such events since comprehensive global coverage began in 1988, establishing a low base rate of roughly one every 15–20 years. Objects energetic enough to reach this threshold are typically tens of meters across and would be detected months ahead, supporting the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Residual uncertainty stems from the small possibility of an undetected long-period comet fragment or rapid fragmentation of a smaller body, though these remain statistically remote given current survey completeness.