Recent military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and stalled US-Iran negotiations have left the program severely damaged and largely dormant, with the IAEA unable to verify the location or status of Iran's roughly 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium. The IAEA board's September 2026 referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance, the first such action in two decades, underscores persistent access restrictions and compliance shortfalls that traders view as major barriers to rapid weaponization. Diplomatic efforts under a June 2025 memorandum continue to emphasize dilution and inspections, yet limited progress and veto protections for Iran at the Security Council reinforce the market's 95% implied probability for no nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026. Scenarios that could still alter outcomes include undetected advances at hardened sites or abrupt shifts in negotiations, though technical hurdles and international scrutiny make these unlikely in the remaining months.