**Recent parliamentary pressure in Iran has intensified calls for NPT withdrawal amid ongoing IAEA disputes and regional tensions, yet no formal government action or 90-day notice under Article X has occurred.** As of mid-September 2026, 130 lawmakers urged parliament to initiate the legal process, citing attacks on nuclear sites, lack of safeguards protection, and perceived IAEA politicization. Iranian officials have signaled that continued external pressure could strengthen withdrawal arguments, while Iran has already curtailed IAEA access and verification activities at most facilities since earlier in the year. These developments reflect hardline sentiment and bargaining leverage rather than imminent policy shift, as any exit would require Supreme National Security Council approval and a supreme national interests declaration. Traders assign an 87% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing the timeline and institutional hurdles as significant barriers despite the rhetoric.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
13% সম্ভাবনা
$567,902 Vol.
$567,902 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
13% সম্ভাবনা
$567,902 Vol.
$567,902 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Recent parliamentary pressure in Iran has intensified calls for NPT withdrawal amid ongoing IAEA disputes and regional tensions, yet no formal government action or 90-day notice under Article X has occurred.** As of mid-September 2026, 130 lawmakers urged parliament to initiate the legal process, citing attacks on nuclear sites, lack of safeguards protection, and perceived IAEA politicization. Iranian officials have signaled that continued external pressure could strengthen withdrawal arguments, while Iran has already curtailed IAEA access and verification activities at most facilities since earlier in the year. These developments reflect hardline sentiment and bargaining leverage rather than imminent policy shift, as any exit would require Supreme National Security Council approval and a supreme national interests declaration. Traders assign an 87% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing the timeline and institutional hurdles as significant barriers despite the rhetoric.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$567,902শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Recent parliamentary pressure in Iran has intensified calls for NPT withdrawal amid ongoing IAEA disputes and regional tensions, yet no formal government action or 90-day notice under Article X has occurred.** As of mid-September 2026, 130 lawmakers urged parliament to initiate the legal process, citing attacks on nuclear sites, lack of safeguards protection, and perceived IAEA politicization. Iranian officials have signaled that continued external pressure could strengthen withdrawal arguments, while Iran has already curtailed IAEA access and verification activities at most facilities since earlier in the year. These developments reflect hardline sentiment and bargaining leverage rather than imminent policy shift, as any exit would require Supreme National Security Council approval and a supreme national interests declaration. Traders assign an 87% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing the timeline and institutional hurdles as significant barriers despite the rhetoric.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
ভলিউম
$567,902শেষ তারিখ
Jan 1, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETরেজলভার
0x65070BE91...**Recent parliamentary pressure in Iran has intensified calls for NPT withdrawal amid ongoing IAEA disputes and regional tensions, yet no formal government action or 90-day notice under Article X has occurred.** As of mid-September 2026, 130 lawmakers urged parliament to initiate the legal process, citing attacks on nuclear sites, lack of safeguards protection, and perceived IAEA politicization. Iranian officials have signaled that continued external pressure could strengthen withdrawal arguments, while Iran has already curtailed IAEA access and verification activities at most facilities since earlier in the year. These developments reflect hardline sentiment and bargaining leverage rather than imminent policy shift, as any exit would require Supreme National Security Council approval and a supreme national interests declaration. Traders assign an 87% implied probability against withdrawal before 2027, viewing the timeline and institutional hurdles as significant barriers despite the rhetoric.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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