Recent military strikes by the US and Israel on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 have damaged key enrichment sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, with IAEA satellite monitoring showing no reconstruction activity since. This has disrupted Iran's ability to advance toward a nuclear test, while limited IAEA access prevents verification of its 440 kg stockpile of uranium enriched to 60%. Ongoing diplomatic talks, including an interim US-Iran accord and mediation by regional states, reinforce trader consensus against a test before 2027. A sudden escalation, successful covert recovery of fissile material, or formal NPT withdrawal could still alter timelines within the remaining window.