US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and related sites, halting active uranium enrichment and leaving much of the pre-strike stockpile of approximately 440 kg at 60% unverified or inaccessible to IAEA inspectors. Recent satellite imagery shows reconstruction and fortification efforts at sites including Minzadehei and Pickaxe Mountain, yet US intelligence and independent assessments place the current breakout timeline at roughly one year or longer if a decision to pursue weapons-grade material is made. Ongoing diplomatic talks and potential post-midterm strikes reinforce trader consensus that a completed nuclear device before 2027 remains unlikely. Shifts could still arise from accelerated hidden reconstitution, a formal policy reversal by Iranian leadership, or major disruptions to verification and pressure mechanisms.